Georgia on My Mind

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Flawed in some respects

Voter participation does not decide most outcomes. Preference dictates outcomes. We are losing on popularity, not participation. That may not be as much fun or convenient as blaming turnout or rigged machines, but it's the reality.

It's actually quite remarkable how balanced turnout percentages are for each side, whether it's a presidential landscape or midterm or special election or whatever. I've studied it for two decades. It's as if a blanket of perceived significance covers each side and the voters act accordingly. Obviously there are variances that come and go. Right now the trends are not in our favor. The sharpest decline in midterm participation -- compared to presidential years -- is currently among minorities and single women. The bottom line is an electorate that is older, more white and more conservative than during presidential cycles.

Our punch rate goes down, if you will. It's like our electorate gains 20 pounds from 2 years earlier and the flurry rate is more like a welterweight or middleweight than lightweight.

It's the reason our upside is not as great as the GOP during midterms amidst favorable conditions nationwide.

Also, the number of safe seats for both sides will be vast. Truly safe seats. Ones that can overcome any political tilt and basically won't be challenged. It is misleading to pretend we can find magically vulnerable seats, ones susceptible to a "body attack." CNN in its 2014 midterm preview listed a combined 50 seats from both sides that weren't safe. But that was when Republicans were on the attack. More Democratic districts are at risk during tilt years due to gerrymandering and rural realities. And cash. Never forget cash. Via Citizens United the GOP won't have any trouble funding every race at risk. Meanwhile we won't be able to devote as much resources to a fringe race like Georgia 6. There are simply fewer Republican seats in play, regardless of environment. For reference, in 2010 Republicans won the national House popular vote by 6.8%. That equated to a net of +63 seats. In contrast, Democrats in 2006 carried the House popular vote by a robust 7.9% but it was good for "only" 31 seats pickup.

Independents largely dictate our 2018 fate. Back to preference again. Preference from outsiders. Independents in 2006 backed Democrats 57-39, according to the House exit poll. I keep all these exit polls for wagering purposes. Subjectivity is an absolute killer. Bias combined with subjectivity lend themselves to faulty memory and poor conclusions. In 2010 Independents flipped to virtually the same margin the other way, favoring Republicans 56-37.

The good news is that recent polling indicates that Independents have turned against Trump. When approval ratings rise or fall it's always Independents directing the move. Last I checked, only 40% of Independents now approve of Trump's job performance.