Trump will win 2020 elections by

[Awsi Dooger]

21. Massive situational advantage

That's the one thing Trump has going for him in 2020, and anybody who dismisses it or downgrades it is an absolute fool.

The public has enormous patience and benefit of a doubt toward an incumbent whose party has been in power only one term. The theory apparently is to allow him to finish the job. Jimmy Carter in 1980 is the only incumbent in more than a century to lose in the advantage scenario. So we would probably need Trump to be stuck in low 40s approval if not high 30s to get rid of him. The problem with that, of course, if that Trump already prevailed in a cycle in which his favorable numbers were very low. If the economy is in good shape he can probably withstand low personal approval again.

The midterm results don't mean much of anything toward the presidential result two years later. Both parties have made that mistake in recent decades...false confidence in the 1994 outcome or the 2006 outcome.