There are two districts here that are eminently flippable from red to blue. They came relatively close to flipping in 2016, but Trumpsters carried them. Right now, those districts are really unhappy with their representation.
MN-2 is currently represented by a Trumper, Jason Lewis, who squeaked through there, but who is skipping town halls and is nowhere to be seen in the district these days. That district is ready to flip. It's south of the Twin Cities, but part of the greater metro area. It's easily accessible and should get lots of attention. The district was R +2 percent in 2016.
MN-3, another R +2 district is currently held by Eric Paulsen, a relatively benign Republican, as Republicans go, but his margin went down in 2016. He's been in that office since 2009, and a good, strong Democrat with name recognition could kick his butt in 2018. Another Twin Cities metro area district, it is eminently flippable.
In MN-1, Tim Walz, a wishy-washy Democrat has held his seat since 2007, in a district that is R +5 otherwise. It's a rural district that spreads clear across the state, south of the Twin Cities. This district is extremely vulnerable to a Republican takeover, but no progressive Democrat would have a chance in it. Walz votes reliably with the Democratic Caucus, so we can work to help him retain the seat and save his vote.
In MN-6, Tom Emmer took over the seat formerly held by Michele (crazy-eyes) Bachmann. The district is rated at R +12. It's located in the Northeastern metro area. If Emmer runs again, he will win, so I wouldn't think we'd have much chance there, to be frank.
MN-8, represented by Rick Nolan, is vulnerable to a strong Republican candidate. Nolan, who is a good guy, is going to need a lot of support if the Republicans field a strong candidate and the district is currently just a D +1 district. It's a far northern district and will need plenty of volunteers from the metro area to help Nolan hold his seat, but I think we can win.
MN-4 and MN-5 are solid, urban Democratic districts, represented by Betty McCollumn and Keith Ellison. If ever there were two districts safely in blue territory, it is those two. I live in MN-4, and have supported Betty McCollum for over 12 years here. She'll win again, easily, and will run. So, I'll have time and energy to work elsewhere in 2018.
MN-7, represented by Colin Peterson, who has been in office since 1991, is a dangerous one. Peterson may well not run in 2018 and the district is R +12. Peterson holds his seat solely by being moderate. The district runs almost the full length of Minnesota's western border and is almost entirely rural. This one is worrisome if Peterson chooses to retire. In fact, it's very likely to flip red.
So, those are the districts in my state, and are the ones I will be working on. We also need to retake our state legislature, which we will probably do without too much difficulty. Our Democratic Governor is retiring after the 2018 election, so that race is going to require a lot of attention, too. We're gonna be busy here, trying to make some gains.
I believe that every DUer should have a list like the one above for his or her own state and be thinking about what he or she will do to help Democrats win in that state. Each of us, I believe, should be focused on elections that are within our own areas and should be willing to exert effort where it is needed to make gains in the 2018 election. Those are the preparations we should all be making right now, I believe. If we do not, we may not succeed.
Thanks for asking.
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