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Purveyor

(29,876 posts) Sat Jul 15, 2017, 01:13 AM Jul 2017

FiveThirtyEight Chat: Is Bernie Sanders Really The Democratic Front-Runner? [View all]

It’s never too early to talk about the 2020 general election — right? So in this week’s politics chat, we’re discussing whether Bernie Sanders is already the Democratic front-runner (it’s been on our minds thanks partly to Vox). The transcript below has been lightly edited.

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natesilver: Last week, Vox’s Matt Yglesias wrote a column claiming that Bernie Sanders — Clare, he’s the independent senator from Vermont who ran in the Democratic primary in 2016 and finished second to Hillary Clinton — was the Democrats’ “front-runner” for 2020. I’m sure you’ve all read that column?

harry: I have read that column. It was an enjoyable experience.

natesilver: I’m glad it made you feel warm inside. But here’s a question — and I want people’s SHORT, topline views before we go into the details of Yglesias’s argument. Is Bernie Sanders the Democrats’ front-runner for 2020?

clare.malone: No, not necessarily. There are other people who are garnering similar enthusiasm from a similar base. (Ahem, Elizabeth Warren.)

more...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-bernie-sanders-really-the-democratic-front-runner/

170 replies

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FiveThirtyEight Chat: Is Bernie Sanders Really The Democratic Front-Runner? [View all] Purveyor Jul 2017 OP

Nate's mistake throughout that interview is assuming that Hillary's millions of 2016 voters pnwmom Jul 2017 #1

Interesting statement. If he were to achieve the nomination... Barack_America Jul 2017 #14

Honestly, I vote for the candidate with the :"D" next to their name, but I can't speak for others. Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #17

That wasn't the question. The question was who would be the favorite/front runner for the pnwmom Jul 2017 #18

He wasn't high on their list in 2016 and came close. Barack_America Jul 2017 #19

He didn't come close. He lost by 4 million votes. And there's no reason to believe pnwmom Jul 2017 #21

You're assuming the Democratic voter base is stable? Barack_America Jul 2017 #22

I don't think it's likely Independent voices would have any more success "drowning out" pnwmom Jul 2017 #23

Bernie's apprentice- yes whoever that is has my vote. Bernie will be too old I think. MiltonBrown Jul 2017 #67

Considering Bernie's brother Larry is a very spry 82 years old Heaven Sent Jul 2017 #69

I don't want a president in his 80's...I have seen cognitive failure in weeks and sometimes Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #164

Absolutely, especially if Bernie runs for the Democratic ticket again, as I expect him to. InAbLuEsTaTe Jul 2017 #29

I don't think either can win a general in this environment. Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #37

Bernie only switched back to Independent to run for re-election in his Vermont Senate race... InAbLuEsTaTe Jul 2017 #48

But he's not a Democrat. xmas74 Jul 2017 #63

CAUCUSES WITH DEMS 100% of the time. Heaven Sent Jul 2017 #70

He has withheld from the party his supporters database, which should be put in use right now pnwmom Jul 2017 #77

Bernie's list is his own, not the property of DNC Heaven Sent Jul 2017 #80

And courts have ruled that the party's nomination process is its own. His failure to share his list pnwmom Jul 2017 #89

I am not going to refight the primaries Heaven Sent Jul 2017 #90

Nate did NOT say that. LOL. Being the early front-runner tells us very little pnwmom Jul 2017 #91

"When someone fights for an important issue like health care"... musette_sf Jul 2017 #95

I agree, Bernie will be the nominee in 2020... we need to come together... InAbLuEsTaTe Jul 2017 #111

When pigs fly...I will not support a non-Democrat in the primary. Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #136

Gee, what would have happened if the DNC didn't want to share musette_sf Jul 2017 #97

But he's not a Democrat musette_sf Jul 2017 #93

Nope don't agree...we need a Democratic president. Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #137

He is not a Democrat. Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #165

Still not a Democrat. xmas74 Jul 2017 #166

He could have remained a Democrat for his run...so I don't buy it. He is not a loyal Democrat Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #135

+ 1 musette_sf Jul 2017 #104

IMO he won't be allowed to run as a Democrat again. brush Jul 2017 #34

Who's gonna not allow him? Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #87

Weren't you around in 2015? He asked the DNC to be put on ballots in the primaries. brush Jul 2017 #102

+1 musette_sf Jul 2017 #107

So have you contacted Tom Perez? Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #108

Agreed on those issues. Fresh blood needed. But why ask me if I've contacted Perez? brush Jul 2017 #109

Yeah, me too. Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #118

Ok, we're on the same page. brush Jul 2017 #141

I couldn't agree more - we need some fresh faces. Chemisse Jul 2017 #130

He is a Democratic Socialist and has been for decades Samantha Jul 2017 #113

He can run as an independent but not as a Democrat...time to move on past the 2016 primary. Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #120

I myself don't want Hillary, Bernie, or Joe to run next time, personally. Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #126

He can't say he is a Democrat because he is not...he has an 'I' next to his name...and for Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #133

Easy answer. We all know he's not a Democrat. He can try the converting trick again... brush Jul 2017 #144

Yes... but "people won't support him this time" isn't the same thing as Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #153

Huh? Since he's not a Democrat, he wil still have to get permission to run as Democrat. brush Jul 2017 #155

So how'd that work last time? Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #156

We already went through this. He had to get approved by the DNC. Not likely to happen again... brush Jul 2017 #157

Where is your evidence that the DNC at the national level had to "allow" him to run? Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #158

You apparently weren't alive during the last campaign. That he asked to run as a Dem was... brush Jul 2017 #160

Who did he "ask", specifically? Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #161

I'm bored with this. If you weren't paying attention during 2015-16 that's on you. brush Jul 2017 #162

Yeah... Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #163

Good question. InAbLuEsTaTe Jul 2017 #146

Less than enthusiastically, I'd say. Not being a loyal Dem is a huge problem for me right now- bettyellen Jul 2017 #52

If they want to stay on DU, they will. Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #86

He won't win a primary...so it is a moot point...the best chance was last time. Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #121

By definition, a discussion of hypotheticals Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #127

Quite true...but I just don't see the support for another run...and he could damage our chances in Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #131

I think it's way too early to worry about it, honestly. Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #132

I am more concerned with 18...but my fear is if Sen. Sanders runs again in20...he will Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #139

Of course they would support Bernie, just like Bernie's supporters did for Hillary. InAbLuEsTaTe Jul 2017 #112

I would...but no I don't think some would vote for him. I also think he would lose very badly Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #119

After what Bernie has said about the Democratic Party, I would not vote for him in a primary. Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #16

If he is the front runner they are going to have to get over it. Agschmid Jul 2017 #75

Nope. They can just turn someone else into the front runner. In the extremely unlikely event pnwmom Jul 2017 #76

I suspect most people in our party want what's best for our party. Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #85

It isn't a matter of being "punished" for running against Hillary. Can't rehash the primary but seaglass Jul 2017 #128

I defiinitely dont want a singular, pre-ordained "marquee" candidate sucking the air out of the room Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #129

I don't really get why people were surprised at Bernie's success, he had a strong message that seaglass Jul 2017 #143

Bernie is not a Democrat. So, no. LuvLoogie Jul 2017 #2

Yep, this time they'd better not let him on the ticket onetexan Jul 2017 #6

who is they... JCanete Jul 2017 #7

DNC onetexan Jul 2017 #10

oh, you mean us? They represent us right? I'm not sure how popular that decision JCanete Jul 2017 #47

NO, not DEMS as a whole onetexan Jul 2017 #62

Yes, somebody makes a decision on our behalf. You don't think barring a liberal from running JCanete Jul 2017 #74

bottom line a candidate SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO RUN ON A DEMOCRATIC PARTY TICKET onetexan Jul 2017 #96

When he runs he says he is a democrat, and enough of us are happy to invite him to run in our party. JCanete Jul 2017 #115

I believe we can do better and should learn from Hortensis Jul 2017 #64

I don't think it likely Sanders will run. If we have a candidate who represents what he represents, JCanete Jul 2017 #72

I ask this sincerely. sheshe2 Jul 2017 #78

Yea i was wondering the same thing onetexan Jul 2017 #94

Exactly, onetexan. sheshe2 Jul 2017 #99

favorable rating. I don't mean to mislead here, and there is a difference between those two things.. JCanete Jul 2017 #114

It would be popular with Democrats...and I do not believe he has an 80% approval rating...he would Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #122

of course you see a great deal of anger. You are here on DU where it gets hashed out every day. JCanete Jul 2017 #147

I don't think a non-Democrat on the ticket is a good idea...I want to win. In a center left country, Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #148

of course there would be a move to do that, and certainly no move to make primaries open. This isn't JCanete Jul 2017 #150

He's 75, ferchrissakes-- anyone really want a President in his 80's? He's got great name... TreasonousBastard Jul 2017 #3

Yep, I am sure a lot more names will, and should, pop up as we approach 2020. SunSeeker Jul 2017 #9

Do love Kamala too! InAbLuEsTaTe Jul 2017 #30

Kamala Harris checks off every box! yallerdawg Jul 2017 #40

She sure does tho I think @this early stage Bernie wud have to be the favorite if he decides to run. InAbLuEsTaTe Jul 2017 #49

Me, too! pnwmom Jul 2017 #79

You mean he's got great policy ideas Warpy Jul 2017 #54

Bernie's done bdtrppr6 Jul 2017 #4

just thought of one Dem to hope on bdtrppr6 Jul 2017 #5

Sherrod Brown. Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #13

And You're Laughing About Kamala Harris...Why? Me. Jul 2017 #28

I agreed with you. Kamala Harris has to be considered brush Jul 2017 #35

Agree That Calif. Is Full Of Talent Me. Jul 2017 #39

I was hoping Hillary would pick Castro. Kaine wa political calculus I guess to appeal to white males brush Jul 2017 #42

Have No Problem With Villaraigosa Me. Jul 2017 #43

I forgot about Bacerra. He is also impressive. Some of these mentions could slide nicely into.. brush Jul 2017 #44

Exactly Me. Jul 2017 #45

Kindly don't call my state "Cali" Expecting Rain Jul 2017 #61

Whats wrong with Cali? Blue_Warrior Jul 2017 #82

Sorry, didn't know it was a no-no. But you have nothing to contribute to the discussion but that? brush Jul 2017 #103

I was born in Oakland - Cali is fine Algernon Moncrieff Jul 2017 #169

I also like Jay Inslee of Washington. And Oregon has two excellent Senators. Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #154

I'm with you... Kamala should be taken very seriously. InAbLuEsTaTe Jul 2017 #50

! Me. Jul 2017 #51

No. Bernie is not a member of the Democratic Party. nt SunSeeker Jul 2017 #8

NO NON-DEMOCRATS IN OUR PRIMARIES!!!!! Foamfollower Jul 2017 #11

No he is not the frontrunner...he is not Democrat. As he went back to running as an independent , Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #12

Rep. Maxine Waters MUST be considered. AngryAmish Jul 2017 #15

Do love the way Maxine isnt afraid to speak her mind... she would make mincemeat of Donny Tiny Hands InAbLuEsTaTe Jul 2017 #32

She's almost 80. Gidney N Cloyd Jul 2017 #36

Don't be ageist. AngryAmish Jul 2017 #41

Adam Schiff has such promise. Would like to see him considered..n/t monmouth4 Jul 2017 #20

At this point Bettie Jul 2017 #24

I am thinking Sanders will not be invited to participate in another Democratic primary. Eom pirateshipdude Jul 2017 #25

Nobody is "invited" to participate in Democratic primaries. former9thward Jul 2017 #81

The party can choose to replace all the caucuses -- where he got most of his vote -- with primaries. pnwmom Jul 2017 #105

i agree, and i hope not onetexan Jul 2017 #98

Joe Lieberman was the Democratic front runner at the start of the campaign for tblue37 Jul 2017 #26

true enough. This is a pretty worthless exercise at this point... JCanete Jul 2017 #116

As I recall, in order to be the Democratic front runner, you have to be a Democrat, and if still_one Jul 2017 #27

That is correct. NurseJackie Jul 2017 #38

I think that's incorrect. David__77 Jul 2017 #56

In order for someone to be considered the Democratic front runner, he has to run as a Democrat still_one Jul 2017 #58

Running in the Democratic primaries is "running as a Democrat." David__77 Jul 2017 #59

No, He won't even get on the ballot as a Democrat in most states unless he identifies as a Democrat still_one Jul 2017 #65

I think that if he wants to run in 2020, he will do whatever is required. David__77 Jul 2017 #66

Of course still_one Jul 2017 #73

If Sen.Sanders does this...we will lose. Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #123

Many states will now require that murielm99 Jul 2017 #110

No way would I vote for him in a primary. Adrahil Jul 2017 #31

He won't get the nomination...and would end up I believe with embarrassing numbers. Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #33

his "democratic socialism" message makes no sense onetexan Jul 2017 #101

He can't win a primary in 20 in my opinion...and will certainly lose a general in 20... Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #124

+ 1 musette_sf Jul 2017 #106

He is the front runner in the way Nate defines the term oberliner Jul 2017 #46

Are they asking this because the Sanders group "Our Revolution" has proven such a powerful Squinch Jul 2017 #53

I would consider supporting him. David__77 Jul 2017 #55

I would not support Sen. Sanders in a primary or Sec Clinton. I want a fresh face. nt Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #125

Is FiveThirtyEight really desperate for clicks? n/t PoliticAverse Jul 2017 #57

Nah, responding to a Matt Iglesias article that was all the rage in twitter-land emulatorloo Jul 2017 #60

Bit of a surprise to me bearsfootball516 Jul 2017 #68

538 is dead to me. Forever. Initech Jul 2017 #71

Nate said Trump had a 1 in 4 chance. Hassin Bin Sober Jul 2017 #83

And that's one of the reasons why I think the election was stolen. Was every poll wrong? lunamagica Jul 2017 #92

Yeah there was something very wrong there. Initech Jul 2017 #100

dear lord can we have a candidate YOUNGER than me? samnsara Jul 2017 #84

I think it's way too early for that conversation. Warren DeMontague Jul 2017 #88

OMG lillypaddle Jul 2017 #117

Maybe I'm the only one, but I have the feeling Sanders wants to run as an Independent in 2020. betsuni Jul 2017 #134

I don't think it's sunk in to most people yet, but I doubt Bernie will be running for anything. VermontKevin Jul 2017 #138

Does he want his legacy to be acting as a 'Nader' and electing Republicans ...I don't believe that. Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #140

I don't think he sees it that way. betsuni Jul 2017 #145

Well if he runs as an independent and gives the GOP a lock down on the courts, Demsrule86 Jul 2017 #149

No. He would lose again. Renew Deal Jul 2017 #142

Fact is, the nominee will be someone aged 48-60 and a new face of the Party. tonyt53 Jul 2017 #151

It is way too early to poll for the Presidential election Progressive dog Jul 2017 #152

Can people please STFU about 2020 so we can focus on 2018? Blue_Tires Jul 2017 #159

God, I hope not. nikibatts Jul 2017 #167

40 months out, nobody is a frontrunner Algernon Moncrieff Jul 2017 #168

Please make it happen LittleBlue Jul 2017 #170