Things That Will Not Happen Before 2020

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9. I disagree with Impeachment

Impeachments cannot be a partisan event, and that is why Pelosi said it was "off the table".

Impeachments can only really take place as a consensus moment with a substantial number of the President's own party agreeing, and this is really the way it should be or we would expect the Republicans to use it as a partisan action when they have a legislative majority.

The possibility that a substantial number (not necessarily a majority) of Republican legislators will call for Impeachment wasn't great but substantially increased this week.

The dots are now so close together that it is hard to see the white between them. There are three factors that will determine whether or not Trump will lose the unanimous backing he has today:

1) Mueller's investigation. If he finds a smoking howitzer that shows a direct link between actions by Trump and the possibility to profit from the Russian subterfuge he won't last until dawn. The fact that we now have a clear progression that goes to Kushner trying to do an end around the IC with a secret Russian based back channel is extremely damaging. These people were very careless with their phone calls. Those calls are likely still in the cloud waiting for a FISA warrant.

2) The Republican donor class. It is a mistake, IMHO, to center on what Republican Congressmen and Senators are saying. The real power is with the donor class and when they determine that Trump is too heavily damaged and cannot advance their interests they will push the button and the elected Republican politicians will move en masse.

3) Loss of the House of Representatives. If they lose the house the Senate will follow in 2020. Yes it is true that 2018 is difficult for the Democrats but if we hold 2020 requires the Republicans to defend 22 seats against 11 very safe Democratic seats. Senate Republicans will be happy, especially if either 1 or 2 above happens to declare they had no idea gambling was going on in the casino and move to put Pence in.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2020

By the way 2022 looks even worse for the Republicans, again defending 22 seats but 2 have already announced they are retiring (Johnson/Wisc and Burr/North Carolina)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2022