General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Tom Perez is not looking good [View all]YoungDemCA
(5,714 posts)What happens when Republicans win 70 percent of white men, and 60 percent of white women? (Yes, that absolutely could very well happen.)
For reference:
http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls
According to this, Trump won 62% of white men and 52% of white women. White men were 34% of the electorate while white women were 37% of the electorate.
So let's say the next Republican presidential nominee wins 70% of white men and 60%of white women, and white men are 31% of the electorate while white women are 35% in that election.
70% of 31 = 21.7
60% of 35 = 21.
21.7% + 21% = 42.7%. That's the share of the total vote in this hypothetical presidential election that is from whites who are voting for the Republican nominee.
But wait, there's more! If you notice, Trump won 8% of black voters, 28% of Latino voters, 27% of Asian voters, and 36% of the "other race" voters. Since the electorate was 71% white last year, that means that non-white voters were 29% of the electorate. Trump won 21% of non-white voters. Let's say the next Republican wins, I dunno, 18% of non-white voters, and the electorate is 33% non-white.
18% of 33 = 5.94%. That's the share of the total vote in this hypothetical presidential election that is from non-whites who are voting for the Republican nominee.
42.7% + 5.94% = 48.64%. That already exceeds Trump's 47% (approx.) in the election. That may not be an outright majority, but that can certainly be an Electoral College victory - which is the only thing that matters in determining who wins the presidential election.