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[Jim Lane]

62. I happen right now to be reading a book about World War I.

In 1914 it was "obvious" to quite a few people that there wasn't going to be a general European war. Just a few days after the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, people in Sarajevo were going on with their normal lives. The newspapers in France devoted all their attention to a sensational sex-scandal-murder-trial that was in progress. The government of the United Kingdom was focused on the politics of an Irish home rule bill. Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany, who had interrupted his vacation after the death of his friend the Archduke, went back on vacation.

And yet, one thing was leading to another. Some of the national leaders involved were pig-headed, they were ignorant about the other countries and they believed what they wanted to believe, and they were afraid of looking weak. (Sound like any contemporary leaders you can think of?)

In the present case, I think it more likely than not that there will NOT be a war. Nevertheless, I don't agree with completely dismissing the possibility.

Incidentally, for anyone interested in history, I can recommend A World Undone: The Story of the Great War, 1914 to 1918 by G. J. Meyer. I'm "reading" the audiobook narrated by Robin Sachs. I'm still only up to September 1914 but I already feel confident in praising both the writing and the narration.