General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Bernie Sanders voters helped Trump become President [View all]andym
(6,057 posts)"Mr. Milbanks choice (article quoted in your post) to use nationwide figures obscures the degree of the defection of white working-class voters from the Democrats to Mr. Trump. That shouldnt be too surprising. After all, the national results would seem to make the 2016 election one of the least interesting in history. Hillary Clinton would be the president if the national tallies counted, and the shift from Mr. Obamas 51.9 percent of the two-party popular vote to Mrs. Clintons 51.1 percent was the smallest change in major party vote share since 1888.
But the national vote doesnt count, and Mrs. Clinton is not the president. She lost primarily because of the narrow but deep swing among white working-class voters who were overrepresented in decisive battleground states................
A separate analysis from the voter study group found that many of these voters are Republicans whom the Democrats cant win back. That question whether the Democrats can lure these Obama voters back is the important one.
The data from these surveys sends a mixed message. Strong evidence suggests a lot of these voters will lean Republican for the foreseeable future, and certainly will lean toward Mr. Trump. But Democrats can still win a meaningful and potentially decisive share of these voters, many of whom probably voted Democratic down-ballot in 2016."
They then discuss the CCES polls for reasons and chances of getting these voters back: look at the sections
SOURING ON OBAMA, SUPPORT FOR TRUMPS AGENDA, FAIRLY STEADY SUPPORT (of the 65% of of Obama/Trump voting in the 2016 primaries, 54% voted for Trump in the primaries-- agrees with your article), LEANING REPUBLICAN (18% shift here!), RACIAL RESENTMENT (strongest predictor of a switch!), MANY REMAIN PERSUADABLE (23% are still Democrats!, 30% if you include Democrat leaning independents).
The article concludes that a portion (at least the 30% above) of the Obama/Trump voters can be won back.