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mvymvy

(309 posts)
41. NPV does Not take an Amendment & Is Supported by Small staters
Sat Sep 9, 2017, 01:22 PM
Sep 2017

The National Popular Vote bill is 61% of the way to guaranteeing the majority of Electoral College votes and the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country, by changing state winner-take-all laws (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), without changing anything in the Constitution, using the built-in method that the Constitution provides for states to make changes.

All voters would be valued equally in presidential elections, no matter where they live.
Candidates, as in other elections, would allocate their time, money, polling, organizing, and ad buys roughly in proportion to the population

Successful candidates will find a middle ground of policies appealing to the wide mainstream of America. Instead of playing mostly to local concerns in Ohio and Florida, candidates finally would have to form broader platforms for broad national support. Elections wouldn't be about winning a handful of battleground states.

Fourteen of the 15 smallest states by population are ignored like the big ones because they’re not swing states. Small states are safe states. Only New Hampshire gets significant attention.

Support for a national popular vote has been strong in every smallest state surveyed in polls among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group

Among the 13 lowest population states, the National Popular Vote bill has passed in 9 state legislative chambers, and been enacted by 4 jurisdictions.

Now political clout comes from being among the handful of battleground states. 70-80% of states and voters are ignored by presidential campaign polling, organizing, ad spending, and visits. Their states’ votes were conceded months before by the minority parties in the states, taken for granted by the dominant party in the states, and ignored by all parties in presidential campaigns.

State winner-take-all laws negate any simplistic mathematical equations about the relative power of states based on their number of residents per electoral vote. Small state math means absolutely nothing to presidential campaign polling, organizing, ad spending, and visits, or to presidents once in office.

In the 25 smallest states in 2008, the Democratic and Republican popular vote was almost tied (9.9 million versus 9.8 million), as was the electoral vote (57 versus 58).

In 2012, 24 of the nation's 27 smallest states received no attention at all from presidential campaigns after the conventions. They were ignored despite their supposed numerical advantage in the Electoral College. In fact, the 8.6 million eligible voters in Ohio received more campaign ads and campaign visits from the major party campaigns than the 42 million eligible voters in those 27 smallest states combined.

The 12 smallest states are totally ignored in presidential elections. These states are not ignored because they are small, but because they are not closely divided “battleground” states.

Now with state-by-state winner-take-all laws (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), presidential elections ignore 12 of the 13 lowest population states (3-4 electoral votes), that are non-competitive in presidential elections. 6 regularly vote Republican (AK, ID, MT, WY, ND, and SD), and 6 regularly vote Democratic (RI, DE, HI, VT, ME, and DC) in presidential elections.

Similarly, the 25 smallest states have been almost equally noncompetitive. They voted Republican or Democratic 12-13 in 2008 and 2012.

Voters in states, of all sizes, that are reliably red or blue don't matter. Candidates ignore those states and the issues they care about most.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Duck, Jayhawk ProfessorGAC Sep 2017 #1
Great post PJMcK Sep 2017 #2
If you are going to give out percentages, padfun Sep 2017 #3
Here's Why I Think It's Salable ProfessorGAC Sep 2017 #13
Playing the Devil's Advocate for a moment Expecting Rain Sep 2017 #20
No, That's Fair ProfessorGAC Sep 2017 #39
NPV does Not take an Amendment & Is Supported by Small staters mvymvy Sep 2017 #41
You Sure? ProfessorGAC Sep 2017 #42
States are enacting the bill mvymvy Sep 2017 #44
Because it still gives small states more power. tinrobot Sep 2017 #33
The EC is no different than grading kids on a curve randr Sep 2017 #4
It's more screwed up than that. yallerdawg Sep 2017 #5
If only there was another house of congress... Baconator Sep 2017 #55
The house that's gerrymandered to the point... yallerdawg Sep 2017 #59
Then the issue is with gerrymandering... Baconator Sep 2017 #62
Thanks for doing the work on the calculations, but since they line up with the popular vote... brush Sep 2017 #6
3% of U.S. could stop Amendment mvymvy Sep 2017 #16
Thanks for that. That makes sense. brush Sep 2017 #17
There is at least 1 move to modify it without the Amendment route to ditch it UTUSN Sep 2017 #7
That will work fine until customerserviceguy Sep 2017 #9
Withdrawal is not possible until after Inauguration mvymvy Sep 2017 #12
Perhaps so customerserviceguy Sep 2017 #18
Passed in red, blue and purple states mvymvy Sep 2017 #15
Yes, it has passed in a couple of red states in PARTS of the legislature customerserviceguy Sep 2017 #19
77% of Maine voters and 74% of Nebraska voters support a national popular vote. mvymvy Sep 2017 #23
Maine and Nebraska customerserviceguy Sep 2017 #24
Well, if you say so . . . But mvymvy Sep 2017 #37
They won't just drop out, they'll sue. hughee99 Sep 2017 #54
The other way would be by congressional district...have you heard about a little thing called Demsrule86 Sep 2017 #8
I don't see it happening customerserviceguy Sep 2017 #10
It certainly could happen. In fact that would be a way for the GOP to retain power and it has been Demsrule86 Sep 2017 #31
Congress would have decided 2016 election mvymvy Sep 2017 #11
Yes, Wyoming would have as much a say in who won as California customerserviceguy Sep 2017 #21
Obama would have been elected following the new rules as well. padfun Sep 2017 #25
So so "ancient rules" & not designed by Founders mvymvy Sep 2017 #34
Wyoming already has more of a say per capita than California does Orrex Sep 2017 #46
The same can be said of Wyoming's representation in the US Senate customerserviceguy Sep 2017 #48
National Popular Vote bill does not change anything in Constitution mvymvy Sep 2017 #50
I was commenting on customerserviceguy Sep 2017 #57
No, it's not the same thing. Orrex Sep 2017 #52
Whether it should or shouldn't customerserviceguy Sep 2017 #58
3% of U.S. could stop Amendment to abolish mvymvy Sep 2017 #60
Yes! That's the bill I was trying to remember Orrex Sep 2017 #61
The constitution does specify the states say how they choose their electors muriel_volestrangler Sep 2017 #14
38 states are politically irrelevant in presidential general elections mvymvy Sep 2017 #35
In the 1960 election, the swing states were Illinois and Texas oberliner Sep 2017 #43
Many states have not been competitive for more than a half-century mvymvy Sep 2017 #45
There are no states that have not been competitive for more than half a century oberliner Sep 2017 #47
One thing we need to be aware of folks... Expecting Rain Sep 2017 #22
Yes, that is why the coalition of states. padfun Sep 2017 #26
But that won't be the only measure moving forward. Expecting Rain Sep 2017 #27
I know. Like you said, padfun Sep 2017 #28
That's their plan to "gerrymander" the EC bigbrother05 Sep 2017 #29
"...if all states allocated their electoral votes based on the percentage of the popular vote..." Iggo Sep 2017 #30
Proportional would not be the same as winning by national popular vote mvymvy Sep 2017 #36
Here's my beef with the EC TexasBushwhacker Sep 2017 #32
Thank you! ProudLib72 Sep 2017 #38
I doubt they'd proportion votes like that. Calista241 Sep 2017 #40
I've been proposing something similar MurrayDelph Sep 2017 #49
One person, One vote mvymvy Sep 2017 #51
Recommended. guillaumeb Sep 2017 #53
there has been a push to do just that. shanny Sep 2017 #56
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