General Discussion

drray23

(8,667 posts)

2. I did a quick estimate in another thread using numbers that traffic engineers use. reposting here:

Reply to PoindexterOglethorpe (Original post)

Sat Sep 9, 2017, 01:09 PM

Sep 2017

http://www.mikeontraffic.com/numbers-every-traffic-engineer-should-know/

So, in the best of cases they estimate 1900 per lane and per hour. So, reversing a 3 lane gives you 6×1900 which is slighly less than 12000 vehicles per hour. If you optimistically assume 4 ppls per vehicle you end up with moving roughly 50k/hour at best.

So 6 million people would take 6 days or so...

Not possible. As soon as there is one accident, traffic clogs.. Not to mention that many of the assumptions I made are very optimistic (everybody has access to a vehicle and pack 4 to a car, they can get gas, they can manage to get on that highway using secondary roads, etc.. )

Mass evacuation is probably only possible if we had a good train system or things like that. Mass transportation instead of private cars.

More realistic is a solid plan for targeted evacs ( like the keys) where you deal with much smaller numbers.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

30 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Evacuating Florida [View all] PoindexterOglethorpe Sep 2017 OP

if you are prepared and the house that was built to take the forces beachbum bob Sep 2017 #1

I've read customerserviceguy Sep 2017 #8

. Weekend Warrior Sep 2017 #13

Thanks, didn't know about that one. customerserviceguy Sep 2017 #14

There have been a number of hits. Weekend Warrior Sep 2017 #17

complacency has always been a problem in florida with hurricanes and new residents beachbum bob Sep 2017 #23

Storm surge and flooding is another result of the storm, which produces monsoon like rains. dixiegrrrrl Sep 2017 #15

florida house had stringent building codes for years then to cheapen construction and speed beachbum bob Sep 2017 #24

There are expensive homes on a sand spit out of Mobile dixiegrrrrl Sep 2017 #25

rules should be simple, home owner assumes all risk when building in a flood zone beachbum bob Sep 2017 #29

I did a quick estimate in another thread using numbers that traffic engineers use. reposting here: drray23 Sep 2017 #2

Tallahassee reported no gas as of yesterday dixiegrrrrl Sep 2017 #9

There were stations with gas last night csziggy Sep 2017 #26

evacuate to where exactly? nt msongs Sep 2017 #3

You can't even get everybody out of Miami Warpy Sep 2017 #4

Yeah. I'd rather ride out the storm in my home than in my car TexasBushwhacker Sep 2017 #5

Yup. Scurrilous Sep 2017 #7

And the gridlock gives you Hurr. Rita scenario dixiegrrrrl Sep 2017 #11

Thanks to all of you for your replies. PoindexterOglethorpe Sep 2017 #6

Where are 20 million people going to go? cwydro Sep 2017 #10

Yes, I know. PoindexterOglethorpe Sep 2017 #16

Non-Floridians don't necessarily understand that not everyone is situated the same. Tommy_Carcetti Sep 2017 #12

Not all can evacuate for different reasons. William769 Sep 2017 #18

Apparently reading comprehension is not what it used to be. drray23 Sep 2017 #19

Thank you. PoindexterOglethorpe Sep 2017 #21

I drove from Miami to Orlando last night on the turnpike Awsi Dooger Sep 2017 #20

I like to think that if I lived in Florida PoindexterOglethorpe Sep 2017 #22

Your Mature Approach RobinA Sep 2017 #30

Not a Fl expert by any means crazycatlady Sep 2017 #27

And that really is the problem. PoindexterOglethorpe Sep 2017 #28