Question about Hillary Clinton and the white working class

[Awsi Dooger]

44. Obama steadily turned off white working class voters and Hillary inherited the plummet

That's not opinion. It was glaring as early as 2014. There were countless ominous articles regarding white voting trends and how it would impact 2016. Whether it was Obamacare or a combination of variables, white working class voters became increasingly angry and shifted in meaningful percentage away from us.

The astonishing aspect is that Hillary and the Democratic Party were somehow unaware or unconcerned.

After the 2014 midterms I handicapped 2016 as a likely narrow defeat for Hillary. Everything pointed in that direction, given the situational trends that I favor. My intention was to pay no attention at all during 2016 because I knew the outcome would make me sick. Only after the GOP nominated Trump and he began to naturally implode did I perk up and think Hillary might narrowly get away with it.

But it was always going to be narrow. Hillary had no upside. Her peak was maybe 50% if everything went perfectly.

The interesting question is what would have happened with that white working class group if Hillary had been our nominee in 2008, as I preferred, and became president. Any Democrat would have prevailed in 2008 given the situational edge with Bush stuck in 32-42% approval for 3+ years post Katrina.

I suspect we would have suffered some leakage but not close to the Obama level. Perhaps half. But that's mostly a guess and I don't like to guess. Applying the situational variables allows me to have an edge minus guesswork.

Hillary would have come across as a tough woman in office, and those white working class voters would have had to respect it. A white woman pursuing and catching Osama bin Laden would have received far more praise and benefit of a doubt than Obama did.