Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

CountAllVotes

(22,161 posts)
10. You may not live another 10-20 years
Sat Sep 16, 2017, 03:48 PM
Sep 2017

I doubt I will, but I could live longer than 20 years, who knows (I do not care to given my health)?

Another crash is right around the corner btw.

Have you noted who is the White House, lying fraud that he is paying off the Russians and everyone else that will keep their mouths shut? I have noticed. I do not like it one bit and I do not trust any of them one bit. Why would I want to have what little money I do have in there wondering if and when the next crash will happen esp. with a $20 trillion $ national debt on the books in this great country of ours?

And also, the financial impact of Hurricane Harvey & Irma ...

>>Economic Impact

Early estimates put property damage at between $30 billion and $100 billion, 0.2%-0.5% of gross domestic product (GDP). Compare that to Hurricane Sandy, which caused $70 billion of damage (0.4% of GDP at the time) and Katrina $110 billion (0.8%).

However, only some of this will be visible in the main economic indicators. There is likely to be a sharp but temporary hit to demand, showing up in weak retail sales, industrial production and jobless claims numbers. The third quarter GDP number could be 0.2-0.3 percentage points weaker than it would otherwise have been. The spike in gasoline prices also looks likely to boost consumer prices by as much as 0.3 percentage points in September.

Later, the rebuilding effort could actually be a larger but much more diffused boost to demand and therefore the level of GDP. Whether there is a lasting impact on GDP after this down-then-up pattern depends on the extent of permanent damage to infrastructure, which as things stand appears material.

Meanwhile, Harvey may have lowered the chance of a government shutdown and failure to raise the debt ceiling ([sic] they have done this temporarily for a few months into next year 2018 but after that -- ??). Congress may need to pass an appropriations bill for disaster relief funds, and also needs to re-authorize the National Flood Insurance Program by end-September. Lawmakers may tack on legislation to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling at the same time. Opposition to a combined bill could be much reduced, given the crisis in Texas.

Energy and insurance market impact

The implications of Harvey striking the heart of the U.S. energy market have been felt far and wide. Over one-third of U.S. refining capacity had been shut down. The U.S. Department of Energy released 1,000,000 barrels of crude to Phillips 66’s Lake Charles refinery to help fill the gap.

Refining capacity was reduced enough to partially close the Colonial pipeline, which delivers gasoline and other products from Houston to the Northeastern U.S. The upshot is that gasoline prices jumped 30 cents in one week. Traders have booked 20 tankers of European distillates, including gasoline for U.S. delivery to take advantage of price rises.

Attention has also focused on who gets the bill for the catastrophic damage. Typical residential home insurance covers wind and rain damage, but not floods. There are federal insurance programs that cover flood damage, but early indications are that homeowners could bear a substantial portion of the economic cost of Hurricane Harvey.

and ...

By contrast, about 80% of car owners purchase comprehensive auto insurance (there are 23 million vehicles in Texas), which does cover flood damage, and most commercial property insurance contracts cover flooding and business interruption, shifting these costs to insurers.

There will be much debate in the insurance markets as to whether this tragedy will lead to insurance rate rises. Previous large insurance events such as 9/11 or Hurricane Katrina ate into insurance companies’ capital reserves. But if the claims on the industry are lower than the value of any future rate rises, then for those who can still supply capital to it, these events can result in higher returns.

This expectation of the mix between insured and uninsured losses currently looks likely to make Harvey an “earnings event” rather than a “capital event” for the insurance industry. While in the short term this may be helpful, the outlook is therefore likely to remain for excess underwriting capacity, low investment returns and continued pressure on insurance rates (good news, of course, for the buyers of insurance).

Conclusions

The broader macro-economic (and political) implications of Hurricane Harvey may take some time to become clear. Similarly, estimates for the cost of the flooding continue to rise and it may be some time before there is clarity on the final bill - or indeed who will be the recipient of that bill.

****
This mess will have a result that will have an effect on everyone. It is called inflation. We cannot go on running such a huge national debt, disasters such as Harvey & Irma which will only continue to occur due to global warming and the huge costs involved in rebuilding over and over again. Katrina was not that long ago and here we go again only worse this time around.

I am not optimistic about the economy. That pretty much states where I am at. History provides us with no information at all regarding these new types of disasters taking place being they are much more severe and more frequent than past disasters. It is very bleak if you fail to recognize the reality of all of it combined.

Also, how CAN you recover if you lost it all and are retired? Answer: You cannot. Ask anyone this question that had their money in Lehman Bros., a company that went belly-up and no longer exists. That was what you call losing it all and the tax write-off for such a loss is a pittance at best.





Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

$40,503 gristy Sep 2017 #1
That works out to 2.75% (more or less) CountAllVotes Sep 2017 #2
I disagree on question 1 NobodyHere Sep 2017 #3
But what about the crashes? CountAllVotes Sep 2017 #4
Historically the gains have outweighed crashes. NobodyHere Sep 2017 #5
I have no business being in the stock market w/it CountAllVotes Sep 2017 #6
I know people that lost everything in 2008/09 CountAllVotes Sep 2017 #7
Was the broker Bernie Madoff NobodyHere Sep 2017 #9
No it was Fidelity CountAllVotes Sep 2017 #11
People have plenty of time to rebound from a crash... cbdo2007 Sep 2017 #8
You may not live another 10-20 years CountAllVotes Sep 2017 #10
I guessed B on the first one LeftInTX Sep 2017 #12
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Most Americans can't answ...»Reply #10