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Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

18. Hard to get to nope

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Reply #16)

Fri Oct 6, 2017, 11:37 AM

Oct 2017

From "estimated".

Thee guys most often use an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to estimate these trends. They are notoriously bad at estimating instantaneous effects. I guarantee you a large chunk of the decline, if not the bulk of it, will ultimately be assigned to the hurricane after the model variances becomes clear.

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