Why The Unknown Motive In The Las Vegas Massacre Is So Unsettling

[Awsi Dooger]

50. A video poker player won't have anything to do with the Mafia

That's silly. But I don't really fault anyone since the media in this case has done an incompetent job of defining the video poker player within the gambling community.

Video poker players are basically not respected. That could have been Paddock's breakdown as much as anything. He was self defined as the biggest video poker player in the world. That's not worth a shrug in Las Vegas. The casinos would know about him but not feel threatened by his action. The serious gamblers in town would basically ignore him due to his chosen specialty.

In video poker you play hundreds if not thousands of hands in rapid fire during an isolated sit down session. Nobody else is rooting you on or aware of anything you do. Well, not unless you hit a Royal Flush and the lights start flashing briefly, before the hand pay.

It is a mostly boring pursuit since you aren't making decisions on the fly as opposed to merely robotically holding the correct cards time after time. With the top guys there might be one hand in a thousand in which they have to pause briefly and consider which option is best. Otherwise it's clear cut math.

I have to laugh every time the FBI proclaims that Paddock wagered $30,000 per day, or whatever. Paddock during that deposition properly scoffed when the questioner asserted that a million dollars per day is a lot of money. Not in video poker. Not close. I'm sure there were days in which I wagered hundreds of thousands per day in video poker. There is no fear or sweat at all. You know damn well that virtually every dollar you cycle through the machine will be returned to you. Those machines are set at 98% or higher payback, not to mention the Player's Card you are using that bumps the return via comps and points. It's hardly the equivalent of a sports wager where you'll get back double your money, or nothing at all. That's the reason those guys become local legends when they dominate the sportsbooks over a stretch of time.

With high volume video poker players the primary variable is how often you hit 4 of a Kind. When those wins come in succession like 6 or 8 of them within an hour, then you clean up. But when you go an hour or more between 4 of a Kind, that's when your credits on the machine really dwindle. Guys go nuts, especially when they are dealt 3 of a Kind repeatedly but never draw the fourth.

I've been waiting for the media to point out something like that. Frankly they have no clue. Unless you are involved in gambling day to day and know other guys who are similarly relying on gambling of some sort for their livelihood, you simply can't pick up the realities from afar.

Obviously the Royal Flush or Straight Flush occurrences can also impact your bottom line. But those hands are so rare compared to 4 of a Kind, which is really the tipping point, like turnovers in football. The video poker player seated next to you can be an idiot who holds the wrong cards on 5 hands out of 100, but if he has a streak of good luck in 4 of a Kind he'll best the guy who won't make a mistake among one hand all year.