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lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)

7. Those external problems do affect the utility of a poll for predicting outcomes.

Reply to ProfessorGAC (Reply #6)

Fri Oct 20, 2017, 12:24 PM

Oct 2017

And that does affect the credibility of the pollster. Of course they have to worry about them.

And, my belief is that, like it or not, all polls are experimental when the society is being broken down by corruption. You can't run experiments quickly enough when each election is tainted in new ways. And elections are the bottom line - can we reasonably predict them, can we reasonably test their validity?

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538: Calm Down About Those Virginia Polls, Folks [View all] RandySF Oct 2017 OP

It will all come down to turnout. The GOP base who thinks that blocking women's healthcare and FSogol Oct 2017 #1

K & R ......for truth...nt Wounded Bear Oct 2017 #2

Yuuuuuge droves! world wide wally Oct 2017 #4

Boy Do i Not Agree ProfessorGAC Oct 2017 #3

Pollsters are desperately trying to find good methods lagomorph777 Oct 2017 #5

I Know People Who Work At Pew ProfessorGAC Oct 2017 #6

Those external problems do affect the utility of a poll for predicting outcomes. lagomorph777 Oct 2017 #7

Well, We Disagree Greatly ProfessorGAC Oct 2017 #8

Thanks for your presumption about what I care about. lagomorph777 Oct 2017 #9

Whatever! ProfessorGAC Oct 2017 #10

Sampling theory is not only about the math. lagomorph777 Oct 2017 #11

It seems to me that accurate polling would depend on everyone or almost everyone telling the truth. Tobin S. Oct 2017 #12

Shy Tory Factor Awsi Dooger Oct 2017 #13

How does a pollster compile a representative sample? Yavin4 Oct 2017 #14

Exactly! Even defining "representative" is tricky lagomorph777 Oct 2017 #15

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