538: Calm Down About Those Virginia Polls, Folks

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Shy Tory Factor

IMO, an American version of that is very real and ongoing and unlikely to cease anytime soon. But these rightwingers aren't shy as much as angry. They link polling organizations as a form of media and therefore not trustworthy.

I would expect polling in this cycle and upcoming cycles to demonstrate a red shift, when there is a discrepancy.

The double digit Northam leads make no sense to me. Virginia is trending our way but the ideological split was still 26% self-identified liberals to 33% self-identified conservatives last year. The nation was 26-35. So the state is slightly more blue than the nation itself.

Outside presidential years the electorate tends to be more male and more conservative. Instead of 53% females, like 2016, it probably will be 51% in the governors race.

I think Northam will win but inside the polling average.

And I have no idea how wild disparity from one firm to the next is touted as a positive toward industry methods. Maybe they were short one stupid article for this month.