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Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)

11. Look at Intrade's electoral map

Reply to jenmito (Original post)

Sat Jul 21, 2012, 01:39 PM

Jul 2012

http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

According to this he could lose FL and OH and VA and still win.

I think the odds jumped because some of the polls move a couple swing states from lean (D) to solid (D). Only OH and VA are light blue now and he doesn't need either one of them to win. If Pres. Obama can keep Rmoney fighting for those two states, which he must win, then it makes it much harder to campaign in others states which he also must win.

Advantage, Obama. 272 electoral votes in the solid (D) category with 31 more leaning that way.

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Intrade: Obama 59.7, Romney 38.2. [View all] jenmito Jul 2012 OP

I think we're just seeing an accurate poll. russspeakeasy Jul 2012 #1

It's now 59.8 to 38.1! jenmito Jul 2012 #2

That's great!! Why doesn't it add up to 100? smitra Jul 2012 #3

It doesn't have to add up to 100. Intrade is a betting site, but even most polls don't jenmito Jul 2012 #5

Because it's not an either/or choice DavidDvorkin Jul 2012 #6

it means they put the odds of obama winning at by any amount at 61.9 percent arely staircase Jul 2012 #7

OK. Thanks for the explanations. I guess I should read up a bit on how Intrade works. n/t smitra Jul 2012 #9

There may still be a slight chance that Rmoney drops out and another (R) Motown_Johnny Jul 2012 #8

This looks about right. Most of the others are pushing a closer race agenda. leveymg Jul 2012 #19

Exactly. russspeakeasy Jul 2012 #20

That's an awful big jump. Don't get me wrong, I WANT to believe they're accurate... Curtland1015 Jul 2012 #4

I can't speak for all InTraders but... yumitaipan Jul 2012 #10

Welcome to DU. A very promising first post. Motown_Johnny Jul 2012 #12

In case it wasn't clear yumitaipan Jul 2012 #14

little more info on Intrade? cbdo2007 Jul 2012 #26

Look at Intrade's electoral map Motown_Johnny Jul 2012 #11

Yup... jenmito Jul 2012 #16

A word of warning yumitaipan Jul 2012 #18

And Florida's latest polling is very encouraging. speedoo Jul 2012 #22

It would be nice but he doesn't need any of them (according to Intrade's map) Motown_Johnny Jul 2012 #24

Right, could be an early call for Obama election night. speedoo Jul 2012 #25

Finally people are absorbing the idea that Rmoney is a crook flamingdem Jul 2012 #13

Yup. And right now it's 60.0 to 38.0. n/t jenmito Jul 2012 #15

That about matches the polls in California flamingdem Jul 2012 #17

Darn I was thinking of buying shares a couple of days ago when it was still 57% jimlup Jul 2012 #21

Anyone know what the predictive accuracy of Intrade is? speedoo Jul 2012 #23