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louis c

(8,652 posts)
14. That is rare, indeed
Sun Dec 10, 2017, 10:15 AM
Dec 2017

Polling data would indicate that's very rare. Otherwise, Trump's numbers would be above 46% (his total in 2106), and even the most generous polls have him below that. Most polls have him in the 30's.

And before you remind me that the polls were off in 2016, may I contend that they weren't. The final polls had Hillary ahead by 3 points. She won by 2. The polls that now have trump in the low to mid 30's, even in they're off by a point or two, indicate that Trump has lost any soft support he had, and is picking few, if any, new voters. Your friend may be one of those few.

Oh, and another thing. I never assumed Hillary was a lock. I thought she was the favorite, but I personally told others (and I was working for Hillary in New Hampshire and I am a Democratic Party operative in Massachusetts), that we should just be locking down the victory by concentrating on the sates that get us above 270, and not worry about Arizona and Georgia. If you remember, she campaigned in those two states in late October. It's not that I am so smart, it's just that for what was at stake, we should never had taken anything for granted. Winning was important. The final score was meaningless.

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