General Discussion

Tarheel_Dem

(31,454 posts)

32. Sadly, it will never happen. The race got nationalized, and that works to Moore's advantage.

Mon Dec 11, 2017, 05:19 AM

Dec 2017

I learned my lesson in Osoff vs. Handel in the GA-06. I think the reason Jones has been able to keep it so close in polling is that he's kept a low profile nationally. Any candidate, in states like GA & AL, should steer clear of MSNBC.

I guess my point is, please don't draw any inferences from what happened in VA. AL is a whole different animal.

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Why I Think Doug Jones Will Win on Tuesday [View all] louis c Dec 2017 OP

I've lived in Alabama and don't know Phoenix61 Dec 2017 #1

Good points. But the AA turnout will need to be 70+%, not 28%, unless I am misunderstanding. Fred Sanders Dec 2017 #2

Where did you see 70% louis c Dec 2017 #5

I'm betting that black-voter suppression is the reason for the need for a huge Aristus Dec 2017 #15

I dont think 25-30% will do it either, unless a lot of white wingers dont vote for Moore. Hoyt Dec 2017 #11

I enjoyed reading your thoughtful post. I sincerely hope that you are correct in your predictions. skylucy Dec 2017 #3

I think you've got a good point, I can give the fathers and mothers of Alabama disalitervisum Dec 2017 #4

but you're using "deductive reasoning" which seems not apply to politics anymore 0rganism Dec 2017 #6

then explain all our wins so far this year louis c Dec 2017 #7

well, each race is its own scenario, but we can look at a few if you like 0rganism Dec 2017 #10

Moore has shot himself in the foot so many times he has worked his way up to his knee caps grantcart Dec 2017 #45

that self-shooting is all about him 0rganism Dec 2017 #46

hats off to you louis c, you were correct 0rganism Dec 2017 #48

God willing Mme. Defarge Dec 2017 #8

Do they have a secure voting system in Alabama? nt Irish_Dem Dec 2017 #9

Well, the Secretary of State is a GOPher..... lastlib Dec 2017 #22

Right the GOP selects the voters, the voters don't select them. Irish_Dem Dec 2017 #39

Your word to God's ear. sandensea Dec 2017 #12

R#23 & K UTUSN Dec 2017 #13

A lot of very shitty voters lie on polls IronLionZion Dec 2017 #14

Jones is already vastly over performing IamFortunesFool Dec 2017 #16

Thank you. My husband keeps saying mountain grammy Dec 2017 #17

A kick for hope and luck. denbot Dec 2017 #18

I also wonder about the power of write-ins sweetloukillbot Dec 2017 #19

In Richmond Va, which is 50-52% white, and 47-48% AA, they had their highest voter turnout. 58Sunliner Dec 2017 #20

Your estimates preclude that the black vote will be for Jones. Jakes Progress Dec 2017 #21

Roy whining about 'outsiders' but NYC Yankee telling 'Bamans how to vote? keithbvadu2 Dec 2017 #23

Hope so. PatrickforO Dec 2017 #24

I hope so as well ... it would do something to help restore my faith Greywing Dec 2017 #25

I think Moore will win a landslide. mr_liberal Dec 2017 #26

"Any Black" we aren't human anymore we are just a freaking color to you people? Heather MC Dec 2017 #27

Look, this is a political analysis louis c Dec 2017 #34

Thank you for Whitesplaining this to me Heather MC Dec 2017 #35

We are all human beings, but in political analysis louis c Dec 2017 #36

You can stop at anytime Heather MC Dec 2017 #41

Thank you for your permission louis c Dec 2017 #42

Thanks for your posts JonLP24 Dec 2017 #55

Virginia is trending our way...Alabama is still Alabama Awsi Dooger Dec 2017 #28

I hope you're right. But... nancy1942 Dec 2017 #29

Polls for Senate special elections are notoriously inaccurate. Doodley Dec 2017 #30

I think Moore wins because I've been in Alabama more than 50 years misanthrope Dec 2017 #31

Sadly, it will never happen. The race got nationalized, and that works to Moore's advantage. Tarheel_Dem Dec 2017 #32

This was right on the money oberliner Dec 2017 #33

Agree - I've leftynyc Dec 2017 #37

I refuse to have a negative, defeatest attitude. louis c Dec 2017 #38

ALL races should be contested leftynyc Dec 2017 #40

Well, we'll all know in 36 hours (NT) louis c Dec 2017 #43

Well then reality is "delusional" Stargleamer Dec 2017 #51

Never been more happy to be completely wrong oberliner Dec 2017 #54

6) Honey I am on the way to the Post Office where is your absentee ballot? grantcart Dec 2017 #44

The Christians who fear the Wrath of God might choose to stay home lunatica Dec 2017 #47

bravo woolldog Dec 2017 #49

You were right MustLoveBeagles Dec 2017 #50

Great job! Rhiannon12866 Dec 2017 #52

Honestly, I'm flabbergasted customerserviceguy Dec 2017 #53

We have this seat until January 2021, at least louis c Dec 2017 #56

Well, I see him being a sort of Scott Brown in a way customerserviceguy Dec 2017 #59

Even if Jones crosses the aisle, he will lose 2020 misanthrope Dec 2017 #60

There was a darkness Turbineguy Dec 2017 #57

You hit the nail on the head TNLib Dec 2017 #58

Well, that was a 50/50. And you knew the day it was decided..... USALiberal Feb 2018 #61

Hey, big shot louis c Feb 2018 #62

On the side of waiting for actual things to happen....... USALiberal Feb 2018 #63

While we're waiting for actual things to happen louis c Feb 2018 #64