DAMN! Pawlenty practically announced he's running for Franken's seat on CNN!

[karynnj]

18. Pawlenty may be the most consistently overrated politician in the country

I remember when he was suppose to be a frontrunner in 2012 and was spoken of in the very early days in 2015 as a possibility. To put it mildly, he completely underperformed in Iowa, a MN border state.

https://newrepublic.com/article/84855/tim-pawlenty-republican-frontrunner-2012

From a Minnesota paper, it sound like the interest in him mostly reflects that the Republicans have a very shallow bench. It also notes that he is currently a lobbyist for organizations like banks. He was governor until 2011 - meaning he will have been out of office for 7 years by the time he could be running.
http://www.startribune.com/pawlenty-for-governor-in-2018-talk-of-comeback-bid-getting-louder/450920483/

Here is an article from 2010, his last year as Governor shows that his approval rating was at 42%. The Republican who ran in the race to replace him lost badly. The following link includes a chart showing his approval rating in MN over his entire time as Governor. This really backs the Star Tribune implication that it is the dearth of Republican political talent that makes him interesting.

http://editions.lib.umn.edu/smartpolitics/2006/12/20/minnesotas-approval-of-pawlent/

Now, as to Franken, the big thing is that he was not up until 2020. For Democrats, it means an extra race in 2018 when we are already defending a huge number of states. Not to mention, if we win as is very likely, the seat is STILL up in 2020 again. Note that NONE of that says anything about Al Franken.

Once the accusations came out, they destroyed Franken's approval in Minnesota. Because he resigned, we will have a race in 2018, which we will be favored to win - even against Pawlenty. (I would doubt that his years as a lobbyist will improve his popularity from when he was governor. ) Any candidate will have Senator Klobuchar, who has an approval rating that is among the highest for Senators - 72% last April - supporting him or her. http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-results-senatorial-job-approval-ratings/420758934/

However, it likely means we could have a stronger incumbent in 2020. While you can see in the link on Klobuchar, last April, he had a 58% approval rating. Other polls put him at 52 - 53 before the accusations. If there were no accusations, he would have been in reasonably good shape - given those numbers and Minnesota's orientation. However, his approval plummeted with those accusations to numbers in the 30s. However, in projecting where he would be in 2020, it is likely that BOTH of these estimates would be wrong. It is unlikely that he would be as high as he was before the accusations (they will have some lasting effect), but he would be nowhere near as low as he was when they first came out. Even with a small impact, he changes from a shoo in to a toss up.

I would assume that any Democrat who wins in 2018 will be given a huge amount of support to help them look good in the Senate. This is what happened in 2006, when we were in the minority in both Houses, and Menendez was appointed after Corzine became Governor of NJ. It was Menendez,who sponsored some popular in blue state's amendments that would play well in NJ - that were regularly done by Democrats. It is very possible that this new Senator will be as strong or stronger in terms of re-election than Franken would be.

Still - we have two chances to lose the state, when we used to have one.