General Discussion

L. Coyote

(51,134 posts)

113. I trust the ability of statisticians to write a prediction algorithm.

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 11:07 PM

Dec 2017

I did the algebraic for Florida 2000, had to send an alert to Al Gore as he drove to his concession speech. Told them the would win Florida by several hundred votes. They turned around and cancelled the concession.

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*** LIVE THREAD - JONES WINS *** ALABAMA SENATE SPECIAL ELECTION *** [View all] eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 OP

Now 60/40 Jones... brooklynite Dec 2017 #1

I would say it doesn't matter until it's 25-30%, actually. Drunken Irishman Dec 2017 #2

Early returns are probably from blue districts... Wounded Bear Dec 2017 #3

State returns are ctually usualy the reverse obamanut2012 Dec 2017 #5

My favorite site to watch online: 2theleft Dec 2017 #4

Yup, this is the best site. a kennedy Dec 2017 #6

Doug Jones leads by 12 percentage points over Roy Moore with 2 percent of precincts fully reporting. eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #7

Watch Talledega County! yallerdawg Dec 2017 #8

70% Talledega County reporting! yallerdawg Dec 2017 #33

Jones held Talledega County 100% reporting!!! yallerdawg Dec 2017 #83

Doug Jones leads by 8 percentage points over Roy Moore with 3 percent of precincts fully reporting. eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #9

kick grantcart Dec 2017 #10

Moore under performing in Limestone county -- good news grantcart Dec 2017 #11

Woohoo ! Madison Co going 2:1 for Jones ! OK, only 1 precinct -- still ! nt eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #12

Who has other election results links to add? L. Coyote Dec 2017 #13

Thanks FuzzyRabbit for posting this on the the thread I'll delete. L. Coyote Dec 2017 #17

NY Times: In Election Interference, Its What Reporters Didn't Find That Matters L. Coyote Dec 2017 #19

Jones leading 10:1 in Etowah Co -- home of Gadsden !! eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #14

Exit polls .. women voting for Jones by a 57% to 42% margin L. Coyote Dec 2017 #15

Red counties showing mostly more write-in votes -- some over 2% eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #16

Roy Moore leads by 8 percentage points over Doug Jones with 7 percent of precincts fully reporting. eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #18

NY Times forecast LIVE L. Coyote Dec 2017 #20

Voters already in line at poll closing can still cast ballots eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #21

Roy Moore pulling away mindfulNJ Dec 2017 #22

Virtually nothing yet from Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile! yallerdawg Dec 2017 #23

Daily Kos Elections Alabama Senate special election liveblog thread #2 L. Coyote Dec 2017 #24

Roy Moore leads by 1.5 percentage points over Doug Jones with 15 percent of precincts fully reportin L. Coyote Dec 2017 #25

Embarrassing State Thrill Dec 2017 #26

Sorry, we tried Alea Dec 2017 #53

Per exits, white voters w. college degrees for Moore 59-37. Moore 78-20 among white voters, no deg. mahatmakanejeeves Dec 2017 #27

Lots of blue vote left to be counted in Birmingham Kaleva Dec 2017 #28

rememeber the small rural counties with few voters come in first Takket Dec 2017 #29

Roy Moore leads by 5 percentage points over Doug Jones with 21 percent of precincts fully reporting. eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #30

9:05pm EST - MSNBC: 13% in, too close to call, less than 5000 votes between. n/t Akoto Dec 2017 #31

Ive been to every State in the Union except Ccarmona Dec 2017 #32

Live Estimates of the Final Vote -- current estimated margin --Moore +0.6% L. Coyote Dec 2017 #34

17% In Ccarmona Dec 2017 #35

Roy Moore leads by 8 percentage points over Doug Jones with 25 percent of precincts fully reporting. L. Coyote Dec 2017 #36

I like the analysis at 538's blog where they are comparing results to benchmarks. femmedem Dec 2017 #37

they should call the race already Legends303 Dec 2017 #38

I've been saying for weeks ClarendonDem Dec 2017 #41

Well, a quick scan of your previous posts confirms that you're a troll. bearsfootball516 Dec 2017 #43

Moose Comrade, Moose Drahthaardogs Dec 2017 #51

No... renegade000 Dec 2017 #44

NY Times is calling it for Jones based on current results. L. Coyote Dec 2017 #45

Houston, Randolph Cos. 100% reporting eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #39

Moore UNDERPERFORMING in both Cos. -- Cornacki just confirmed. nt eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #56

This message was self-deleted by its author eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #60

Roy Moore leads by 4 percentage points over Doug Jones with 29 percent of precincts fully reporting. L. Coyote Dec 2017 #40

NY Times Estimated margin -- NOW Jones +2.9% L. Coyote Dec 2017 #42

Oh dear I guess I gotta get my hopes up BootinUp Dec 2017 #48

Jones +4.9 now Johnny2X2X Dec 2017 #54

TRMS just confirmed 30% black turnout nt eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #46

NYT has Jones at... yallerdawg Dec 2017 #47

There is a lot of blue on that map, including some unexpected places. eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #49

Jones ---- Chance of winning 77% L. Coyote Dec 2017 #50

Last election jamzrockz Dec 2017 #52

Have been calling a Jones win all week jamzrockz Dec 2017 #104

moore is really struggling right now Takket Dec 2017 #55

Estimated margin NOW at Jones +5.1% --- 77% chance of winning. L. Coyote Dec 2017 #57

MOORE IS RUNNING OUT OF VOTES! yallerdawg Dec 2017 #62

Nate Silver: Jones over performing in Urban areas and they haven't reported much in urban areas yet grantcart Dec 2017 #58

Link to NYT Forecast Page Ccarmona Dec 2017 #59

Roy Moore leads by 5 percentage points over Doug Jones with 39 percent of precincts fully reporting eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #61

Where, l dont see that Ccarmona Dec 2017 #64

Sorry, *PROJECTING* it for Jones. eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #66

Check the NY Times maps. We are still waiting on BLUE Montgomery County(?) L. Coyote Dec 2017 #63

Russell Co. 100% in -- goes for Jones ! nt eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #65

NOW 89% chance Jones wins. L. Coyote Dec 2017 #67

times just jumped to 90% odds of jones win.......... Takket Dec 2017 #68

A lot of BLUE COUNTIES have lots of votes left to be counted. DemocraticSocialist8 Dec 2017 #69

NYT!!! yallerdawg Dec 2017 #70

New York Time predicting this? flamingdem Dec 2017 #91

It goes up and down... yallerdawg Dec 2017 #98

Moore is running out of places to get votes KelleyKramer Dec 2017 #71

Turnout is down in heavily red areas per Nate Silver's blog femmedem Dec 2017 #72

Several small counties now 100% or almost so in, solidly blue -- but low populations. eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #73

Estimated margin NOW -- Jones +8.3% L. Coyote Dec 2017 #74

Madison Co. 3:2 for Jones -- home to 3rd largest city in AL eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #75

Talladega Co 100% in -- marginally for Jones nt eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #78

Counties with AL's five largest cities all going for Jones. eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #84

This message was self-deleted by its author eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #151

NY Times: 565,000 votes remain .... We think Mr. Jones leads in that vote by about 14.1 points. L. Coyote Dec 2017 #76

...and how big were the odds they gave Hillary to win when polls closed a year ago? regnaD kciN Dec 2017 #81

uh.... okay this is odd..................... Takket Dec 2017 #77

We are still waiting on some BLUE areas to report. L. Coyote Dec 2017 #86

most of the rest of the vote is from blue counties grantcart Dec 2017 #79

This message was self-deleted by its author eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #96

Nate Silver "I wouldnt take the probabilities too literally, at least until later in the night." L. Coyote Dec 2017 #80

With the NYT saying Jones has a 65% Chance, Time for Putin Ccarmona Dec 2017 #82

Nyt pangaia Dec 2017 #85

Estimated margin --- Jones +3.3 --- 69% reporting L. Coyote Dec 2017 #87

This is what to watch, scroll down to Estimated Votes Remaining L. Coyote Dec 2017 #88

****THIS**** n/t cynatnite Dec 2017 #90

I trust the New York Times. GreenEyedLefty Dec 2017 #107

I trust the ability of statisticians to write a prediction algorithm. L. Coyote Dec 2017 #113

What you said. GreenEyedLefty Dec 2017 #119

Appears To Be Narrowing nt SoCalMusicLover Dec 2017 #89

Only 2.5% Moore lead now mvd Dec 2017 #92

MOORE LEAD DOWN TO 2.5%!!! DemocraticSocialist8 Dec 2017 #93

Dallas county? still no reporting? Thor_MN Dec 2017 #94

That's a DEM county n/t renegade000 Dec 2017 #97

Roy Moore leads by 2.8 percentage points over Doug Jones with 76 percent of precincts fully reportin eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #95

Folks, most of the small counties' votes are in. Lots showing 100% reporting. eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #99

lead finally shrinking and jones still has about 50000 votes in montgomery........... Takket Dec 2017 #100

i meant birmingham Takket Dec 2017 #102

Roy Moore +3.0 percentage points over Doug Jones with 77 percent of precincts fully reporting L. Coyote Dec 2017 #101

10:00pm EST - MSNBC: 72% In - too close to call - 51% to 48% favoring Moore. n/t Akoto Dec 2017 #103

Packed house at the Doug Jones party in Birmingham. L. Coyote Dec 2017 #105

I SHIT YOU NOT! yallerdawg Dec 2017 #106

Its going to be extremely close if Jones wins Legends303 Dec 2017 #115

NY Times: 292,000 votes remain --- Jones leads in that vote by about 6.7 points. L. Coyote Dec 2017 #108

My god, this is a nail biter GreenEyedLefty Dec 2017 #109

Roy Moore leads by 0.7 percentage points over Doug Jones with 81 percent of precincts fully reportin eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #110

Some precincts near B'ham reporting 40-50% turnout ! nt eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #117

Jones is moving up! Hoyt Dec 2017 #111

Yes he is! GreenEyedLefty Dec 2017 #116

6500 Vote Difference Ccarmona Dec 2017 #112

Race is tight. Johnny2X2X Dec 2017 #114

Chance of winning 78% Jones L. Coyote Dec 2017 #118

Roy Moore leads by 0.0 percentage points over Doug Jones with 85 percent of precincts fully reportin eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #120

I'm starting to be hopeful! OMG! 😲 ecstatic Dec 2017 #121

Me too... cautiously! GreenEyedLefty Dec 2017 #122

JONES NOW AHEAD BY 0.2% eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #123

This message was self-deleted by its author eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #130

Looking....Dare I Say Ccarmona Dec 2017 #124

fivethirtyeight.com now has Jones in the lead - barely Jersey Devil Dec 2017 #125

woohoo! Rachel walked on to Lawrence's set to continue lol bonus Rachel is always good Takket Dec 2017 #126

***Clutching rosary*** Jones... please let him pull this out. Tatiana Dec 2017 #127

10:20pm EST - MSNBC: Jones takes lead with 18k votes, votes still outstanding. n/t Akoto Dec 2017 #128

Jones up!!! Johnny2X2X Dec 2017 #129

Shelby Co now Moore's ONLY hope for more votes. eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #131

NYT 95% Jones chance of winning! yallerdawg Dec 2017 #132

Doug Jones leads by 0.9 percentage points over Roy Moore with 89 percent of precincts fully reportin eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #133

This message was self-deleted by its author eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #138

Roll Blue Tide... Sancho Dec 2017 #134

OMG OMG OMG DemKittyNC Dec 2017 #135

I know me too! Wish I could see dump's face when the election is called ecstatic Dec 2017 #142

I am not normally violent DemKittyNC Dec 2017 #147

NYT SAYS 95% chance of Jones Victory Ccarmona Dec 2017 #136

moore down by 11k now. only Diebold can save him now. Takket Dec 2017 #137

NYT has all but called it at this point. eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #139

Good Lord, I think Alabama is on the brink of electing a Democratic Senator. Tatiana Dec 2017 #140

I knew Alabama could do it. nolabear Dec 2017 #141

AP calls it for Jones defacto7 Dec 2017 #143

Yes, it has: Denzil_DC Dec 2017 #145

Fox calls it for Jones bagimin Dec 2017 #144

hillary won 13 counties in 2016. jones currently leads in 25 Takket Dec 2017 #146

Trump won the state by 28 points!! KelleyKramer Dec 2017 #150

times has called it too. jones wiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnssssssssssss!!!!!!!! Takket Dec 2017 #148

In terms that Alabamians can understand Ccarmona Dec 2017 #149

I just switched to Faux DesertRat Dec 2017 #152

WOW... GreenEyedLefty Dec 2017 #153

Jones' margin of victory is so far less than half of the write-in vote ... eppur_se_muova Dec 2017 #154

The Mainstream Republican Knives Are Coming Out for Bannon Ccarmona Dec 2017 #155

64,000 votes remain --- Jones leads in that vote by about 16.4 points. L. Coyote Dec 2017 #156