Would Jones have won if his opponet was

[Sophia4]

10. The Republican Party is aging and dying.

The Democratic Party is the party of the young.

So the seat may or may not go back to the Republicans in 2020. Depends on how the universities are funded, how the parents of the young do as they age (in terms of Social Security and Medicare and how much Republican cuts to those programs push the cost of caring for aging parents on the young), on whether wars have to be fought, on whether money goes for war rather than for building communities, depends on lots of things.

The youth vote tends to be Democratic -- and for good reason.
The Republicans are literally dying out.

If you were 40 in 1980, and a Ronald Reagan voter, you are now 77. You are aging. If you were 30 in 1980, you are now 67. And so it goes. The Reagan generation is disappearing. And with it, a lot of Republican voters. I myself am 74, so I notice this demographic change.