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Yo_Mama

(8,303 posts)
31. Much of this has little to do with Greece. No one's saying "China", because that's the elephant
Mon Jul 6, 2015, 08:46 PM
Jul 2015

in the damned room. China's ongoing equity meltdown is shaking people.

The impending Grexit is shaking things up, but US crude fell partly on sentiment but more on rising output and now a rising rig count being reported. With the Euro not being that favored, hedging the dollar in crude doesn't work very well for anyone. But the Euro/USD is roughly stable - what's moving WTI are production that was reported at 9,600,000 last week (when US production was predicted to peak at 9,200,000), plus news that US rigs were now rising:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-drop-on-rising-us-rig-count-china-stock-market-probe/articleshow/47919592.cms

So it's a losing trade.

If China is in trouble, and it most certainly is, then hopes for a large rise in demand must dim, and that means that increases in US oil production will bring crude prices down.

Also, it should be obvious that if US producers are able to continue raising production with prices below $65, their production costs have fallen significantly, and it is estimated that a lot of these producers can now make decent money at $45-50.



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Great time to buy equities. Greece has an economy 1/8 the size of Italy. geek tragedy Jul 2015 #1
I feel like people Aerows Jul 2015 #2
You sound like Schulz or Barroso...lol. roamer65 Jul 2015 #4
The US has more debt (as a percentage) than Greece. Our "advantage" is jonno99 Jul 2015 #5
Greece has about twice as much debt as the US Travis_0004 Jul 2015 #7
Also, a very high percentage of our debt is an accounting gimmick--intragovernmental geek tragedy Jul 2015 #11
Its not really an accounting gimmick Travis_0004 Jul 2015 #22
But it's debt the government owes itself geek tragedy Jul 2015 #24
They owe it to me an you, and every american. Travis_0004 Jul 2015 #25
That intra-gov't lending means the US public debt is actually twice what is officially listed. leveymg Jul 2015 #27
I stand corrected - thanks (still way too much though - imho). nt jonno99 Jul 2015 #21
That's not correct. US's debt/GDP ratio is 71%. Greece's is 180%. geek tragedy Jul 2015 #9
I stand corrected - thanks (still way too much though - imho). nt jonno99 Jul 2015 #20
The real key is the cost of debt maintenance. Adrahil Jul 2015 #23
You are so wrong it's awesome. Where did you read this??? Yo_Mama Jul 2015 #30
One bad apple MannyGoldstein Jul 2015 #8
Markets freak out when there is uncertainty. geek tragedy Jul 2015 #10
Derivatives Turbineguy Jul 2015 #19
You should tell Bernie about that. delrem Jul 2015 #12
The discussion is about equities markets. geek tragedy Jul 2015 #13
Huh? I was approving of your democratic socialism, geek tragedy! delrem Jul 2015 #14
I in turn applaud your placing a higher priority on stroking your geek tragedy Jul 2015 #15
You say that your thinking doesn't help Bernie?? delrem Jul 2015 #16
So what are your recommendations for exploiting the Greek demise? riderinthestorm Jul 2015 #33
I personally do not trade stocks. geek tragedy Jul 2015 #34
Have read it will likely keep mortgage rates low into next year tomm2thumbs Jul 2015 #3
Let the markets have their temper tantrum bluestateguy Jul 2015 #6
Though, oddly, European markets haven't gone down so much muriel_volestrangler Jul 2015 #17
"U.S. crude suffering the biggest declines". To me this is good news, I'm happy with the extra cash! Sunlei Jul 2015 #18
Unless modrepub Jul 2015 #26
The Saudis have $900B in reserves. They'll take a larger stake in their JVs at cutthroat prices. leveymg Jul 2015 #28
Its a risk to invest in things like oil or gold and always expect the profits continue forever more Sunlei Jul 2015 #29
Much of this has little to do with Greece. No one's saying "China", because that's the elephant Yo_Mama Jul 2015 #31
Meh Art_from_Ark Jul 2015 #32
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