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In reply to the discussion: What Went Down In The Second GOP Debate [View all]Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)21. 538: "We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate"
Micah Cohen:
Carly Fiorina. Shes sitting with an 8 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee would you buy or sell her stock?
Harry Enten:
Id sell. Let me be the old curmudgeon in this group; I continue to believe that a traditional candidate will emerge as the ultimate nominee. I believe her record at HP will eventually bring her down, among other things. That said, I wouldnt put her chance near 0. Perhaps closer to 3-5 percent. Better than Trump.... Let me point out a few things: 1. I think we need to realize that this is still September. Other more establishment candidates did very well last night. 2. Fiorina self-funded somewhat in 2010. Not exactly someone who relied on the traditional infrastructure.
Nate Silver:
Yay, an actual disagreement! Id at least hold Fiorinas stock at 8 percent, and maybe buy ... hold is totally an option ... the thing about Fiorina is that it seems a little off to classify her as an insurgent/outsider. If youre the CEO of a major company like HP, youre a part of the establishment. Unless youre a real weirdo. And if you run for Senate as a Republican in 2010, and run as a surrogate for a bunch of Republican candidates, youre part of the *political* establishment too.
Simone Landon:
Whos Walker? Was he even there last night?
Enten:
Buy. At 4 percent? Id buy. ... His debate performance was a ball of meh, but hes the governor of a fairly large bluish-tint state. He won election three times in four years. Hes conservative.
Silver:
Yeah, its a buy at 4 percent....his favorability ratings are pretty good and he has enough money to survive for a while.... Im not saying that his stock hasnt diminished. But I think theres been an overreaction. A 25-to-1 shot? Sure. Ill take a few of those tickets.
Cohen:
Jeb Bush at 39 percent: buy/sell/hold?
Enten:
Selling ... 39 percent is way too high.... {Fair price is} somewhere between 20-30 percent. His super PAC still has a ton of money. He leads the endorsement race (if barely). Hes ahead of most of the other traditional candidates in the polls (for whatever that is worth). And I dont think he is too moderate for the party at this point.
Silver:
Yeah, sell. I dont really get why hes at 39 percent. ... {Fair price is} 25 percent? 30 percent?
Cohen:
THE DONALD: 13 percent. Buy/sell/hold?
Enten:
Sell.
Landon:
we all sell on The Donald
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Do questions about repealing Obamacare count as questions about healthcare? n/t
Attorney in Texas
Sep 2015
#5
Now how would talking about those things make rich people richer? Use your head!
valerief
Sep 2015
#10
I think Trump and Paul did better that 538 ranked them and Kasich did worse
Attorney in Texas
Sep 2015
#9
Kasich, Walker, Christie, Huckabee, and the whole kiddie table all needed homeruns, and they struck
Attorney in Texas
Sep 2015
#12
538: "We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate"
Attorney in Texas
Sep 2015
#21
I agree that the chart is completely ambiguous, but I remember her interrupting a bunch last night
Attorney in Texas
Sep 2015
#25
Locking, does not meet LBN SOP. Thank you. Repost in GD or Good Reads please.
uppityperson
Sep 2015
#26