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TwilightGardener

(46,416 posts)
19. Russia could have forced out Assad, in any number of ways, at any time in the
Sat Sep 19, 2015, 05:51 PM
Sep 2015

past few years. They could have intervened militarily in the last few years (the way they're doing now) to prop him up, to fight the jihadists, or to bring the civil war to an end. In fact, they watched us threaten Assad for quite a while--we were talking all sorts of tough, making it seem that regime change would happen again as with Qaddafi. They were not terribly concerned about ISIS pre-Iran deal, but as soon as the ink was dry, they're meeting with Iran and moving forces into Syria. This tells me something: all this time they believed that the US was unwilling to act in a conclusive way against Assad because it would jeopardize the Iran deal. Did we send those signals? Maybe as soon as the deal was done, they assumed we would immediately try to either take out Assad or establish no fly zones and increase our presence or strength (either with our troops or our trained rebels) and squeeze him while using ISIS as a pretext--none of which would serve their interests. So they suddenly move in with fighter jets and anti-aircraft systems (obviously not meant to fight ISIS) but with the stated goal of fighting ISIS. Hmm. I don't believe Russia is suddenly looking for a responsible end to the whole sorry situation and suddenly wants to work with us. I think they've been reading the signals and our intentions all these years, watching the timing, and are now moving to keep us out of Syria or controlling our activities to their/Assad's/Iran's advantage. Worry about jihadists and war and refugees and destabilization are not their main motivator--hasn't bothered them up till now.

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No John, there are no questions at all. Vlad is not going to let the West destroy another ME Purveyor Sep 2015 #1
Putin/Assad apologist? oberliner Sep 2015 #5
aka "Putinista"... Purveyor Sep 2015 #7
Not about Putin. Regime change in Syria will make Damascus the capital of the Islamic State. leveymg Sep 2015 #45
Assad needs to stay right where he is and regain control of Syria. Hopefully Russia can help... eom Purveyor Sep 2015 #49
Just like those nasty pro-Saddam apologists who opposed the last Iraq war. nt killbotfactory Sep 2015 #20
Please read the Guardian or better yet watch the interview Kerry gave to British TV karynnj Sep 2015 #8
"Vlad not going to allow the West..." I agree, truth2power Sep 2015 #28
Heck, I've been posting around here long enough now that Purveyor Sep 2015 #34
Thanks for posting real news on this subject. Most would rather ignore what's going on over there. leveymg Sep 2015 #46
....x10+ 840high Sep 2015 #30
Agreed. nt thereismore Sep 2015 #36
Agreed. nt thereismore Sep 2015 #37
Very strange article as in most of the world the call is to negotiate and that Russia and the US karynnj Sep 2015 #2
Russia has been pretty keen on keeping Assad in place oberliner Sep 2015 #3
And to think that it was humans Plucketeer Sep 2015 #4
None of the players involved here are especially religious oberliner Sep 2015 #6
I have no idea about Putin or Assad, but Kerry actually is karynnj Sep 2015 #9
Not sure I agree with you there oberliner Sep 2015 #10
I suspect I have read far more of and by Kerry than you have karynnj Sep 2015 #13
Great find... IthinkThereforeIAM Sep 2015 #17
And my earlier comment wasn't directed at these three Plucketeer Sep 2015 #31
They're called weapons sales. Crowman1979 Sep 2015 #11
What leverage do we have to drive negotiations? TwilightGardener Sep 2015 #12
The leverage is that Iran and Russia are both geographically closer to the area where ISIS is karynnj Sep 2015 #14
+1. nt bemildred Sep 2015 #15
Russia could have forced out Assad, in any number of ways, at any time in the TwilightGardener Sep 2015 #19
I think the change was NOT the US karynnj Sep 2015 #21
Assad was weakening and losing ground and I'm sure TwilightGardener Sep 2015 #23
Like you, I don't get the impression that Carter is a powerful part of the team. karynnj Sep 2015 #25
+1. nt bemildred Sep 2015 #40
I think Putin likes the Shi'ia Crescent and is moving to protect it. bemildred Sep 2015 #41
+ 1. nt karynnj Sep 2015 #42
We and our allies in the region want Syria to suffer killbotfactory Sep 2015 #22
While I agree that our efforts against ISIS seem to be TwilightGardener Sep 2015 #27
He does seem to have made a half hearted ozone_man Sep 2015 #38
The stick is that we've reduced oil imports from 40% to 25%. Our leverage is over KSA leveymg Sep 2015 #47
Yeah, I think things are not going well for the Saudis. bemildred Sep 2015 #56
The last I heard, however, KSA's foreign reserves were $900B leveymg Sep 2015 #59
I'm sure they'll leave as soon as things calm down, like we did in Iraq. 7962 Sep 2015 #16
They're not leaving. Period. Russia has been in Syria longer than it was in Poland. leveymg Sep 2015 #48
Oh, I agree. I was kidding. Dont know how the Russian civilians will like it 7962 Sep 2015 #50
K&R red dog 1 Sep 2015 #18
And this is the question Vlad is asking Barack: Demeter Sep 2015 #24
Is the world not our playground anymore ReactFlux Sep 2015 #26
Kerry wouldn't have to worry if we got out of the ME. He's between a rock and a snappyturtle Sep 2015 #29
It was Mccain/Rubio etc that wanted regime change in September 2013, not Obama karynnj Sep 2015 #32
Well if you sleep better at night biting on the cw excuse, be my guest. Catch up. nt snappyturtle Sep 2015 #33
I followed what happened - obviously better than you did karynnj Sep 2015 #35
I never used the President's name period! What are you talking about? snappyturtle Sep 2015 #43
Explain then what exactly you meant in the post I responded to karynnj Sep 2015 #44
Assuming you meant to reply to me, I am saying cw was the excuse to strike. snappyturtle Sep 2015 #58
What can Kerry do ? DustyJoe Sep 2015 #53
Sure, let Russia control ALL the ME. And along with that goes all the oil. 7962 Sep 2015 #51
What we "need" from the ME is oil sold with the petro dollar. nt snappyturtle Sep 2015 #57
Of course Canadian jets bombing Syria no problema Monk06 Sep 2015 #39
The Canadians have no plans to STAY there if ISIS is eliminated nt 7962 Sep 2015 #52
Harper has no business sending Canadian jets to bomb anybody. Lester Pearson was the Canadian Monk06 Sep 2015 #55
Syria is a sovereign country forsaken mortal Sep 2015 #54
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