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In reply to the discussion: Most Americans are nervous or scared about Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton [View all]jeff47
(26,549 posts)Most of that 30% will vote for the Democratic nominee, be it Sanders or O'Malley or Clinton.
For winning the GE, you need the 20% of the electorate that are Democratic-leaning independents. They will either show up or stay home. They will not vote for the Republican.
Independents are not centrists. There are two major blobs - Democratic-leaning independents and Republican-leaning independents. They are roughly the same size. They will never vote for the opposing party. They will either vote for one party or stay home. Polls often treat "independents" as one block, which makes them appear to be centrists since you are effectively averaging Democrats and Republicans.
They will not "fall in line". They are not Democrats.
They will not vote only because "Republicans bad!". That's why they stayed home in 2010 and 2014 (and to a lesser extent in 2012. That's why Obama's popular vote margin went down by half)
They are to the left of the median Democrat. Clinton's history of "pivot to the center for the GE" is exactly the wrong thing to do.
Clinton is starting in a very bad place with these voters, and she needs them to win the GE. She has very little "room" to change their opinion over her, due to her long time in the spotlight. it is going to be very hard for Clinton to get these voters to the polls. And if they don't show up, it's 2000 or 2004 again.
Sanders and O'Malley are starting in a much, much better place with these voters.