Latest Breaking News

jeff47

(26,549 posts)

48. I'm not talking about that poll. I'm talking about the make-up of the electorate

Thu Dec 10, 2015, 12:43 PM

Dec 2015

as shown by a whole lot of polls and studies, as well as actual election results and exit polling.

Here's one article about it. There are many others, with minor differences in percentages.

Roughly speaking, 30% are Democrats. 30% are Republicans. 40% are independents, half of which "lean Democratic" and half of which "lean Republican". "Leaners" will never vote for the opposite party. True "swing" voters that will vote for either party are a trivial fraction of the electorate.

You are trying to dismiss problems with independents as "94% will vote for the Republican". My point is voting is not zero-sum. Democratic-leaning independents will not vote for the Republican. They will stay home if they do not want to vote for the Democrat. And voting for the Democrat is not the same thing as voting against the Republican.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

120 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Most Americans are nervous or scared about Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton [View all] Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 OP

I really love the cleverness of the Bernie Movement in equating HRC and Trump. Buzz Clik Dec 2015 #1

+1 .. n/t obnoxiousdrunk Dec 2015 #2

Agree. What nonsense equating Hillary with a dysfunctional fascist. Hortensis Dec 2015 #26

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #31

The OP misstates Clinton support BADLY, Hortensis Dec 2015 #34

The OP ... staggerleem Dec 2015 #59

76% of Democrats feel GOOD about Hillary. As for the OP, Hortensis Dec 2015 #69

So NOW your wanting to parse a national poll? blackspade Dec 2015 #62

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #71

No, it's not. It's polled Democrats. Hortensis Dec 2015 #73

Now That Sounds itcfish Dec 2015 #86

The similarities between the RW and Sanders folks Gman Dec 2015 #55

Funny ... staggerleem Dec 2015 #61

On this forum there are a few non-bernies who have become trollish, Hortensis Dec 2015 #117

A New York Times/CBS poll result is "the Bernie Movement"? nt. m-lekktor Dec 2015 #5

I was NOT speaking of the poll, which is incredibly obvious to those not looking for an argument. Buzz Clik Dec 2015 #91

What did Bernie have to do with this? 840high Dec 2015 #11

Absolutely nothing. Buzz Clik Dec 2015 #92

Rectal extraction at its finest mindwalker_i Dec 2015 #21

I assume you're referring to the OP: I totally agree. Buzz Clik Dec 2015 #93

If I had meant to respond to the OP, I would have responded to the OP mindwalker_i Dec 2015 #99

Yep. But in the spirit of your original response to me: Buzz Clik Dec 2015 #101

the only equation is that they are both the 'front runners' for their respective parties azurnoir Dec 2015 #52

"another day another smear" Indeed. The author of the OP should be ashamed, but we know better. Buzz Clik Dec 2015 #94

The HIllary movement has been equating Bernie to Ron Paul for months. morningfog Dec 2015 #53

Not the same. Buzz Clik Dec 2015 #95

Of course not. Of course. morningfog Dec 2015 #103

The parallel between Gore and HRC in that context is true. Buzz Clik Dec 2015 #110

I am not "having a sad" and I think you are confused. morningfog Dec 2015 #111

Good lord. No idea why I locked in on Nader. That's embarrassing. Buzz Clik Dec 2015 #112

I spend the better part of my day in a brain cramp. morningfog Dec 2015 #113

Yup, that has been the pattern among some for some time. The old Nader still_one Dec 2015 #54

I love the way people use RIGHT WING SOURCES like THE WEEK to make their points. MADem Dec 2015 #57

The CBS poll is equating Trump and Clinton. blackspade Dec 2015 #60

The poll isn't equating ANYONE OR ANYTHING! staggerleem Dec 2015 #63

You're misunderstanding my response. blackspade Dec 2015 #64

It's not the poll that's the problem, it is the OP and posters who make similar comparison. Buzz Clik Dec 2015 #96

The poll is doing the comparing. blackspade Dec 2015 #107

the poll did. jeez roguevalley Dec 2015 #97

Nope. The author of the OP misled the readers with the thread title and supporting text. Buzz Clik Dec 2015 #98

And yet 52% say they'll vote for Clinton, only 32% (down 1% from November) for Sanders. George II Dec 2015 #3

it makes complete sense to restrict the question restorefreedom Dec 2015 #45

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #72

Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Democratic Party nominate? baldguy Dec 2015 #4

The Democratic party is 30% of the electorate. jeff47 Dec 2015 #6

But the Democratic Party is almost 100% of the Democratic Primary electorate. George II Dec 2015 #8

And that still doesn't win the GE. jeff47 Dec 2015 #9

Except Obama lost independents in 2012....and still won. nt Cali_Democrat Dec 2015 #10

He got enough of them to win. Independents are roughly split 50-50 jeff47 Dec 2015 #18

So Bernie has 30% of the Democrats 30% redstateblues Dec 2015 #104

Virtually all registered Democrats will vote for the nominee. jeff47 Dec 2015 #116

52% of 30% of the electorate Doctor_J Dec 2015 #16

You should be. jeff47 Dec 2015 #22

Wait!!! itcfish Dec 2015 #89

It's independents and cross-overs who win GE elections. Hepburn Dec 2015 #15

And do you know what drives those people away? baldguy Dec 2015 #23

To the people I have spoken with -- what drives them away is... Hepburn Dec 2015 #29

As if Sanders could win the general election, Beacool Dec 2015 #28

Democrats are 30% of the electorate. You don't win a general election with 30%. jeff47 Dec 2015 #36

Would you care to expand on your thoughts? Or is that the extent of your observation? Vincardog Dec 2015 #44

My point was clear. Beacool Dec 2015 #106

Yes see Bernie winning every democratic voter that cares a out winning the GE. The winner is the Vincardog Dec 2015 #108

I saw another poll with Clinton getting 6 percent of the Indpedendent vote CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #7

I'd like to see that poll leftynyc Dec 2015 #13

No, 94% will not vote for Hillary -- that is the issue. n/t Hepburn Dec 2015 #17

So somewhere in that poll leftynyc Dec 2015 #20

You are not getting this, are you? Hepburn Dec 2015 #24

And the Poll STILL hasn't been posted leftynyc Dec 2015 #39

So what percentage will it be? Desert805 Dec 2015 #82

No idea leftynyc Dec 2015 #87

What does it matter? Hepburn Dec 2015 #84

Bullshit leftynyc Dec 2015 #88

Link to the poll please. leftofcool Dec 2015 #105

No. Voting is not zero-sum. jeff47 Dec 2015 #25

So you've seen this leftynyc Dec 2015 #41

I'm not talking about that poll. I'm talking about the make-up of the electorate jeff47 Dec 2015 #48

Take it up with the leftynyc Dec 2015 #65

Are you EVER going to post leftynyc Dec 2015 #40

This poll as presented by NYT/CBS is a pretty bad gauge of the opinions of Americans.... George II Dec 2015 #12

Finally I am in the majority on something Doctor_J Dec 2015 #14

K/R 1K n/t SmittynMo Dec 2015 #27

The majority of Americans don't want their taxes raised upaloopa Dec 2015 #37

When it's framed by right wingers, you are correct Doctor_J Dec 2015 #43

Again you are using talking points upaloopa Dec 2015 #75

I saw him get upset when reporters asked about foreign policy. He wanted to talk about the economy. Laser102 Dec 2015 #74

Why is HRC unwilling to apologize for her vote for a WAR CRIME???? Why KingCharlemagne Dec 2015 #115

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #19

When the chips are down, I doubt that Trump will be the Republican nominee. Beacool Dec 2015 #30

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #32

I read that kind of wishful thinking on RW sites. Beacool Dec 2015 #33

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #38

and you are proud of smearing a Dem on a Dem board!! Shame on you. riversedge Dec 2015 #46

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #67

Irony ain't just a lump of ferrous material... whatthehey Dec 2015 #49

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #68

LOL - the cons have leftynyc Dec 2015 #42

Holy False Equivalency, Batman! nt Tommy_Carcetti Dec 2015 #35

Thank you. riversedge Dec 2015 #47

And for the record for all the GD:P people out there..... Tommy_Carcetti Dec 2015 #50

well Bernie is NOT an outsider VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #78

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #51

Why? Thenewire Dec 2015 #56

Everyone I've spoken with agrees that this election SUCKS. There are NO decent candidates. Xithras Dec 2015 #58

One reason, IMHO, is the post-Watergate micro-scrutiny of candidates steve2470 Dec 2015 #109

I admire supporters who work tirelessly for their candidate. LanternWaste Dec 2015 #66

This is such bullshit. murielm99 Dec 2015 #70

Insightful analysis. frylock Dec 2015 #76

22% of Democrats are excited about Clinton. frylock Dec 2015 #77

Why even care about what Republicans think? ThoughtCriminal Dec 2015 #79

Trump cannot win the general election because he has no support among independents and Democrats. Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #80

There you go again. Another post conflating Trump and Hillary. Nitram Dec 2015 #81

26 years Bernin Dec 2015 #83

Come On Now itcfish Dec 2015 #85

one is a neocon who will continue the endless wars, the other is insane. yurbud Dec 2015 #90

Plain ridiculous that Americans are almost as scared of Hillary Clinton as they are of Trump. Zing Zing Zingbah Dec 2015 #100

A Sanders nomination is scary to me, he does not have a foreign policy Thinkingabout Dec 2015 #102

Your fears about ISIS are misdirected. You are 187 times more likely to starve to death in American Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #114

This information does not give Sanders foreign affairs knowedge, he lacks in this area. Thinkingabout Dec 2015 #118

Clinton has less experience focusing on poverty than Sanders has focusing on foreign affairs. Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #119

What, less experience, has Sanders ever went into migrant camps seeking the children in those Thinkingabout Dec 2015 #120