Gas wars: A gallon is just 46 cents here

[happyslug]

24. I can remember my father complaining of 35 cents a gallon gasoline.

That was about 1972-1973 period, just before the first Oil Embargo. My father had a 1970 Datsun Pickup, which had great fuel economy, but he still objected to the huge increase in the price of gasoline in that period.

Since the 1930s Gasoline in the US had averaged around 25 cents a gallon (Varied over the country based on the amount of gasoline tax each state imposed AND cost of shipping the Gasoline to your section of the Country, thus your 18 cents a gallon in OKC, would of the same time period as the 25 cents a gallon in Western Pennsylvania, Western PA is at the end of the Mississippi and Ohio river barge route for gasoline and even then Pennsylvania has one of the highest taxes on Gasoline).

25 cents (18 cents in Oil producing areas) was the price the Texas Railroad Commission liked. Texas was then the single largest producer of oil in the world (so to be bypassed by Saudi Arabia in the 1970s, but from the 1930s to 1970, Texas was the world's "Swing producer", the oil producer who could set the price of oil by how much oil it produced).

From the 1930s till 1970 (except during WWII), the Texas Railroad Commission, which had the power to restrict oil production in Texas (and as such the Head of that Commission had more power then the Governor of Texas), set world oil prices by determining how much oil would be produced in Texas. If the price was to high, the Commission increased Texas oil production, if the price was to low, the Commission cut Texas oil production. The purpose of this was to maintain a stable price for oil, or as stable as such a price could be made. The Texas Railroad Commission by controlling Texas Oil Production set world wide oil price. One old joke about OPEC was that OPEC was founded in 1960 so the Seven Sisters only had to go to one place to tell the other oil producers what the price of oil had been set by the Texas Railroad Commission.

Come 1969, for the first time since WWII, the Texas Railroad Commission fully opened up all of the Texas Oil Fields, and even with that change the price of Gasoline went from 25 cents to 35 cents a gallon. Texas had lost control over the price of Oil.

We all know about the 1973 Oil Embargo, but Americans tends NOT to know of the 1956 and 1967 oil embargos, WHy? Because in 1956 and 1967, the US was still a net Oil exporter and thus the Arab Oil Embargo of 1956 and 1967 had no affect on the US. The problem was by 1973 the US was a net oil IMPORTER, as the lower 48 states oil production dropped but demand for oil increased. Thus you saw a huge jump from 35 cents a gallon to 75 and 80 cents a gallon almost overnight. My Father actually did not complain about that increase for the Oil Embargo and the subsequent jump in price was all over the news.

My father had complained about the jump from 25 cents to 35 cents a gallon, for it was seen but NOT reported on (More Accurately the Newspapers and Television News did not report on WHY the increase in the price of gasoline BEFORE the oil Embargo). In effect my Father complaints was NOT that the price was 35 Cents a gallon, but why was it 35 cents a gallon when it had just a few years before been 25 cents a gallon. No one was telling people why, for they did not want to admit that the US had hit its first "Peak Oil". That had been predicted in the 1950s but everyone dismissed it for unlike Hubbard, who looked at the price of oil being produced, others just looked at total oil that could be produced (i.e. including the Fracking oil fields that have come into production since 2002, as oil slowly increased to almost $5 a gallon, Hubbard's prediction was based on oil that could be sold at 25 cents a gallon, but that oil peaked in 1968 and had NEVER increased since that date. What has increased is oil that cost a lot more to produce and the world price did not support production of that oil til after 2005 when oil finally reached the highest price it had been at since the US Civil War).

Just a comment on the price of oil. US oil production was suppose to get so high by 2017 that the US was suppose to become a net oil exporter again. The problem was that was based on oil at $80 a barrel, i.e. more then $3.50 a gallon and since oil price peaked in 2008, the price of oil has dropped. Do to how the fracking wells were financed, they could NOT be shut down when the price of oil dropped below they cost of production.

In fracking wells, the huge cost is drilling the well. Once Drilled, the actual cost of producing the oil is quite low. Thus when oil was $80 a barrel or more a gallon, drillers could get almost any financing to drill their wells. Then the bottom fell out of the market, and cost of oil fell below cost of production, if you included the cost of drilling the well. On the other hand, the cost of production EXCLUDING the cost of drilling the well, is quite low and these well are producing oil today. The old adage goes this way "If you can not maximize profits, minimize your loss". That is what Fracking well drillers have been doing since about 2013, producing oil from wells they already have, but refusing to drill any new wells. Some of driller stopped in 2010, but others had signed contracts that required them to drill or lose their right to drill AND still pay the fees to the landowner for the right to drill. i.e. Drill or lost even more money. These drillers kept on drilling till 2014, when most of the wells subject to such contract had been drilled.

The prediction that the US would become a net oil exporter by 2017 was based on expectation that the number of wells being drilled would continue at the same pace as in the 2006-2010 period. The problem was a good bit of such drilling was done in the 2010 to 2014 period, but in 2014 drilling slowed down, to reflect the low price for oil. Thus the US will NOT become a net oil exporter in 2017, we are exporting crude but importing as much or more crude AND refined products from overseas.

From what I have read, 2017 looks like the year oil production and price bottoms out (Some experts think it will be 2016). Then you should see a slow but steady rise on the price of oil, as in the period 2002 till 2010. As the price of oil goes up, more wells will be drilled to cash in on the increase price, thus the slow increase in price.

Now, how low will the price of oil go before it starts to climb? I just do not see it dropping below $1.00 plus whatever if your state gasoline tax (in my state that means $1.50 a gallon, Pennsylvania has a 50 Cents a gallon gasoline tax). It is presently $2.09 so another 50 cents drop is possible. On the other hand, the dynamics in oil production means something has to give in the next two years. Iran re entering the oil market is a wild card, it may force the price even lower as Iran sells Oil it could not sell in prior years.

On the other hand the top two oil EXPORTERS are Saudi Arabia and Russia (combined they out produce the next 10 exporters combined). Both Saudi Arabia and Russia export about the same amount of oil (with the US the #3 oil producer, but a net oil importer not an exporter). England is again an net oil importer (it had been a net exporter from the 1980s till about 2000). Mexican oil production is down, but Canadian oil production is up (but while the US is importing more oil from Canada then Mexico these days, the Canadian fields are no where near as productive as the older and now mostly drained Mexican Oil fields).

Just a comment, that I expect Oil and Gasoline prices to stay low for at least another year, then start a slow but steady increase in price starting either late 2016 or early 2017 (with the exception is something bad happens like Saudi Arabia goes into full Civil War).