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safeinOhio

(38,120 posts)
3. Boston Globe article on how bad polls are.
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 01:55 PM
Feb 2016

On Friday, the firm Public Policy Polling released a survey saying that 30 percent of Republican voters nationwide would support bombing “Agrabah,’’ a fictional kingdom featured in the Disney movie “Aladdin.’’

The obsession over polls comes at a time when they may be less accurate, with some notable errors over the past several election cycles. In 2012, Romney’s campaign was confidant in the general election against President Obama based on its own internal polling, but it underestimated turnout for traditionally Democratic constituencies.

Most of the preelection polling in the Kentucky governor’s race last month showed Democrat Jack Conway with a slight lead; Republican Matt Bevin won by 9 points.

One major challenge for pollsters is ensuring they capture the sentiments of voters, particularly younger and poorer ones, who no longer have hard-wired telephone lines and only use cellphones.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/12/25/explosion-polling-early-primary-states-fueling-obsession-with-horse-race-politics/8bIVSb392uRqr9eSIgFsyM/story.html

I say enough with recent polls

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I don't believe it. All the unscientific online polls have Sanders by 40 points itsrobert Feb 2016 #1
I think that Sanders will win NH. Beacool Feb 2016 #2
The fact that he's losing ground in NH (his own back yard with tailor-made ... NurseJackie Feb 2016 #10
right. riversedge Feb 2016 #14
Boston Globe article on how bad polls are. safeinOhio Feb 2016 #3
Haha kcjohn1 Feb 2016 #4
The Democratic national and NH polling are moving exactly as you would expect from a tie in Iowa. Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #5
Yet CNN/WMUR poll shows Sanders lead increase in NH magical thyme Feb 2016 #6
That same poll predicted a Bernie blow-out in Iowa emulatorloo Feb 2016 #8
I'd call the 2 polls a wash. 4 other polls put Bernie +15-20 magical thyme Feb 2016 #15
FWIW 15 to 20pts "feels" more real to me. emulatorloo Feb 2016 #16
Reuters/Ipsos just confirmed Quinniapac's national poll -- virtual tie...even better magical thyme Feb 2016 #21
Post-Iowa, Pre-NH Debate, No details on methods. A lottery ticket can get hopes up too. nt TheBlackAdder Feb 2016 #7
Voters are in a Throw the Bums Out Mood houston16revival Feb 2016 #9
Looks better each day for Hillary in nh... beachbumbob Feb 2016 #11
Clinton's supporters here say polls don't matter, so who cares. closeupready Feb 2016 #12
Hillary can wish in one hand.... Plucketeer Feb 2016 #13
Hillary is great at multi-tasking and complex thinking. riversedge Feb 2016 #17
And other stuff. Plucketeer Feb 2016 #18
I've heard that about her CoffeeCat Feb 2016 #19
Hillary supporters are getting desperate Reter Feb 2016 #20
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