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Zambero

(9,976 posts)

19. Factionalism: More Can = Less

Sat Mar 5, 2016, 03:09 PM

Mar 2016

In this particular instance, those GOP cumulative primary vote tallies represent MUCH less than the total of the individual parts. There is a lot of divisiveness within those numbers and there is no united front, far from it. Perhaps 40% of them are Trump voters, and half of the remaining 60% cannot stomach him. And Trump's supporters are not necessarily fond of Cruz or Rubio either. In addition, the party out of the White House can be expected to show up in greater numbers for primary elections, particularly with the unusually large number of candidates entering the race and the disproportionate media coverage for them. The general election will be a reset, and while a lot can happen between now and then, the "noise" in this year's primary stats will not be a reliable predictor of the November outcome.

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Here's Just How Massive Republicans' Super Tuesday Turnout Was [View all] MrModerate Mar 2016 OP

My honest opinion? It's about the establishment machine's effort to crush the Sanders candidacy. PatrickforO Mar 2016 #1

You are exactly right. Vinca Mar 2016 #17

sometime leftovers MFM008 Mar 2016 #77

Cold leftovers.. n/t agracie Mar 2016 #80

Right. 840high Mar 2016 #26

The way it's headed, IMO, Trump will win the 2016 presidency. Trump promotes new school like it or RKP5637 Mar 2016 #31

Neither Clinton nor Sanders, IMO, underestimates the volatility of running against a demagogue� MrModerate Mar 2016 #49

I don't think Hillary can beat Trump. OZi Mar 2016 #61

I know dozens of teapublicans angrychair Mar 2016 #73

Those who hate Clinton with a passion . . . MrModerate Mar 2016 #86

As long as we all stick together, I also think it's doable! n/t RKP5637 Mar 2016 #70

THE.RIGHT.HATES.HER! Kelvin Mace Mar 2016 #78

I don't see the anti-Clinton passion as sustainable . . . MrModerate Mar 2016 #87

You don't see anti-Clinton passion as sustainable? Kelvin Mace Mar 2016 #88

Not to worry, I *am* worried . . . MrModerate Mar 2016 #89

Yep. And if they have to take the whole ship down rather than step out of the way, they will. silvershadow Mar 2016 #53

I hope Sanders wins; if not, we lose in November Vote2016 Mar 2016 #71

There is much better GOTV in the states Sanders TexasBushwhacker Mar 2016 #81

This message was self-deleted by its author Skittles Mar 2016 #79

The dynamics are different on Dem side than they are on the Rep side. YOHABLO Mar 2016 #2

That doesn't really scare me sharp_stick Mar 2016 #3

Primaries are when voter rolls are refined and voters are registered. TDale313 Mar 2016 #28

Another huge unspoken factor here is the demise of ACORN. They were responsible for getting Chakab Mar 2016 #39

I'm glad youbrought that up, bvar22 Mar 2016 #52

Yeah, I was incredibly disappointed with Obama after the way that he refused to speak up for Chakab Mar 2016 #72

Van Jones too. bvar22 Mar 2016 #75

I think enthusiasm trumps sanity in just about every election. If it is a rainy horrible election LiberalArkie Mar 2016 #4

This is the approaching storm no one is talking about. retrowire Mar 2016 #5

The low voter turnout for Democrats doesn't scream revolution to me. Trust Buster Mar 2016 #6

Nor enthusiasm. mac56 Mar 2016 #8

Yep, it screams grudging acceptance that the status quo with triumph once more. BillZBubb Mar 2016 #32

Depends on your version of Revolution Hydra Mar 2016 #83

IMO democrats like their both their choices katsy Mar 2016 #7

Trump is the most concise and compelling argument for not voting for Trump. n/t MrModerate Mar 2016 #50

Do you remember when it seemed impossible for GW Bush to get into the White House? Human101948 Mar 2016 #55

I do, and that's one reason I'm uncomfortable about Trump. MrModerate Mar 2016 #58

And this is why HRC would LOSE in the GE! SoapBox Mar 2016 #9

The GOP has more candidates running so the GOTV effort is greater. muntrv Mar 2016 #10

Doesn't scare me anymore. RiverNoord Mar 2016 #11

I dunno . . . MrModerate Mar 2016 #51

Here are some of the reasons that Hillary will lose to Trump. JDPriestly Mar 2016 #62

That is a very good article independentpiney Mar 2016 #84

I get the freak out about it Blue_Adept Mar 2016 #12

From your keyboard to the electorate's ear� n/t MrModerate Mar 2016 #54

Maybe it's because people are identifying as Independents? in some States, you cannot vote as an secondwind Mar 2016 #13

Very good point noretreatnosurrender Mar 2016 #76

Actually, states where Sanders won or was very close TexasBushwhacker Mar 2016 #14

As always, GOTV will be essential� MrModerate Mar 2016 #56

TV effect Pantagruelsmember Mar 2016 #15

Bernie and Hillary Could Debate The Size of Their Anatomy To Gin Interest... TomCADem Mar 2016 #16

Dem Candidates not as rabid as GOP Candidates Cmdr. Wolf Mar 2016 #18

A lot of Sanders voters like me are sick and tired of Democratic pollitics as usual. JDPriestly Mar 2016 #64

Factionalism: More Can = Less Zambero Mar 2016 #19

Yes it could florida08 Mar 2016 #20

They could swamp us or we could swamp them. ffr Mar 2016 #21

Case in point, Nevada. We out-did them by 12% ffr Mar 2016 #22

Way recommended. H2O Man Mar 2016 #23

I have a theory about this. Jenny_92808 Mar 2016 #24

Sorry, but that is not a realistic view. JDPriestly Mar 2016 #66

Democrats have won the popular vote 5 of the last 6 presidential elections. yallerdawg Mar 2016 #25

Here's the real reason for their high turnout. roamer65 Mar 2016 #27

yep NJCher Mar 2016 #33

I agree with your analysis.... Jenny_92808 Mar 2016 #37

Do these same people return to the polls in November? That's the question. n/t MrModerate Mar 2016 #57

'not as bad as tRump' is not gonna excite voters. but rest assured it is a premise that will be KG Mar 2016 #29

When Hillary is your candidate, that's about all you've got to run on. BillZBubb Mar 2016 #36

I don't see the GE as the same. Plus, Hillary will hurt tRump with his own video. lindysalsagal Mar 2016 #30

Not worried....yet UMTerp01 Mar 2016 #34

Without Sanders in the race, it would be much worse n/t arcane1 Mar 2016 #35

The media presents it as a choice between the clown car and Hillary. Spitfire of ATJ Mar 2016 #38

People will turnout in droves to vote against Trump. leftyladyfrommo Mar 2016 #40

Well lets see Andy823 Mar 2016 #41

In Virginia, at my poll we had people telling us they were voting in the R primary peacebird Mar 2016 #42

i talked with a number of voters in VA who said that while i was canvassing... unaware that the best JudyM Mar 2016 #59

"Left" and right wing media obsession with Trump coming home to roost AgingAmerican Mar 2016 #43

According to real clear politics, Hillary's got it. lindysalsagal Mar 2016 #44

yeah Hillary is scaring them away PatrynXX Mar 2016 #45

In the 10 states where both parties had elections, Hillary got 3,514,567 votes muriel_volestrangler Mar 2016 #46

hmmm rtracey Mar 2016 #47

No. It's the Hillary supporters who will chase the Bernie supporters away who will JDPriestly Mar 2016 #68

well rtracey Mar 2016 #69

Biden bears great responsibility for the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 2005 which made it JDPriestly Mar 2016 #74

Complacency, Division houston16revival Mar 2016 #48

I have been pointing out that if Bernie were not running, the turn-out for Hillary alone JDPriestly Mar 2016 #60

The voters are finally fed up with politics as usual. Turbineguy Mar 2016 #63

Scared as hell zentrum Mar 2016 #65

It's because they have a hot contest treestar Mar 2016 #67

why? SusanLarson Mar 2016 #82

Few Dem contests that are neck and neck - Justice Mar 2016 #85

In other words: 3.8 million racist sh*theads are feeling empowered... Earth_First Mar 2016 #90