Sanders Says Democratic Convention Will be Contested

[SouthernDemLinda]

127. Clinton-Trump match-up - loss of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania would lose the Democrats the genera

AN EXCERPT FROM:

HUFFPOST POLOTICS

www.huffingtonpost.com

THE BLOG

Bernie Sanders Could Still Win the Democratic Nomination — No, Seriously

Seth Abramson Attorney; Assistant Professor, UNH; Poet; Editor, Best American Experimental Writing

Updated May 11, 2016

John King of CNN, and others, have made crystal-clear the scenario under which Bernie Sanders could become the Democratic nominee for President: he runs the table on the remaining primaries and caucuses.

If Sanders runs the table in 2016, it will mean the following has (by June 7th) happened:

Sanders has won 19 of the final 25 state primaries and caucuses (not a typo); Sanders is within a few hundred thousand votes of Clinton in the popular vote; Sanders has won 54 percent of the pledged delegates since Super Tuesday; and Sanders is in a dead heat with Clinton in national polling.

The above alone — while absolutely stunning; Sanders running significantly better than Obama for the entire second half of the primary season is a major eye-opener — wouldn't be enough to trigger the second scenario in which super-delegates are suddenly meaningful (as noted above, a front-runner so weak he or she is unlikely to win the general election).

What makes 2016 very different from 2008 is that the following items are presently true:

Sanders has dramatically higher favorable ratings than Clinton, despite months of attacks from his Democratic opponent and Trump and GOP super-PACs generally laying off both Sanders and Clinton; Sanders beats Donald Trump nationally by much more than does Clinton (12 points, as opposed to 6 for Clinton, in an average of all national polls);
Sanders beats Donald Trump in every battleground state by more than does Clinton; and Sanders beats Trump by 22 points among independents, while Clinton loses independents to Trump by 2 points.

As we sit here today, the Clinton-Trump match-up in the three biggest battleground states — Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, the loss of all three of which would lose the Democrats the general election — is a dead heat.