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In reply to the discussion: Poll: Clinton tops Trump, but neither prompts excitement [View all]still_one
(98,883 posts)Which indicates that the majority of Democrats are satisfied with their choice of nominee, Hillary.
"On the Democratic side, 55% of Democrats and Democratic-leaners say they'd pick Clinton as their party's nominee, 43% say they would pick Democratic rival Bernie Sanders."
On the republican side, 51% pick Trump, while 48% prefer someone else, so there is obvious dissatisfaction within the republican party concerning their choice of a candidate.
What exactly does this national poll mean? There is no indication that they polled more people in states like California, New York, etc. which have have larger electoral college vote representations. In fact, the polls implies they just took a random national sample of 1001 adults, which may mean that some of the larger population states were under represented, and some of the smaller population states could be over represented. Since CNN/ORC did not indicate a proportional weighting in regard to a states population, it is pretty clear this is just a random nation sample. There is also no demographic breakdown in regard to race, gender, how many republicans, verses number of Democrats polled etc.
"The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone June 16-19 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. The poll includes interviews with 891 registered voters. Results for registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."
At this stage in the process the poll means very little, and the subjective "enthusiasm" measure means even less. Enthusiasm always increases after a parties convention. That is why there is the "convention bounce" we hear about.