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Frances

(8,588 posts)

13. Thanks for pointing out that Nate does not do polls

Wed Jun 29, 2016, 01:03 PM

Jun 2016

He is a statistics expert who uses other people's polls to predict

Notice how he says that his prediction is like a prediction made a half time in a ball game. Half the game is yet to be played.

But most of us like it better when our team is winning at half time

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Nate Silver: 79 percent chance Clinton wins [View all] onehandle Jun 2016 OP

Only 79%? Seems kind of low to me. GOLGO 13 Jun 2016 #1

Probably since its still kind of early Doctor Jack Jun 2016 #12

Yep, but still early. And HRC is still facing onslaught of a conservative Corporate Media who hates Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2016 #48

Trump's probability of winning is greater than the probability of rolling a seven, and that's scary! Towlie Jul 2016 #85

He's incompetent as a pollster. So this is more Lounge material, than LBN. closeupready Jun 2016 #2

How so? tavernier Jun 2016 #3

One state during the primary was miss-called because pollsters messed up, affecting his data. onehandle Jun 2016 #9

He's not a pollster; he a polling analyst brooklynite Jun 2016 #11

Thanks for pointing out that Nate does not do polls Frances Jun 2016 #13

I would take my chances with Silver, tavernier Jun 2016 #14

He seems to cherry-pick, ignoring races where outcomes aren't to his liking, or closeupready Jun 2016 #24

I think he has had a pretty good track record while not perfect. totodeinhere Jun 2016 #25

I especially liked how you supported your premise with objective evidence LanternWaste Jun 2016 #68

Well "it seemed." Hard to argue with that hard-hitting analysis. Adrahil Jun 2016 #74

Please explain your statement PJMcK Jun 2016 #5

I followed him that year padfun Jun 2016 #29

Interesting observation PJMcK Jun 2016 #33

He had Jeb's probability at like 85% for Laura PourMeADrink Jun 2016 #40

Missed the mark on that one, didn't he? PJMcK Jun 2016 #42

That's a good one ! Laura PourMeADrink Jun 2016 #64

hmmm rtracey Jun 2016 #47

Dick Morris didnt follow the polls. He made his up padfun Jun 2016 #49

Back then, The Repugs were saying their polls showed them winning padfun Jun 2016 #50

Not QUITE. Adrahil Jun 2016 #75

Perhaps he is incompetent as a pollster. Captain Stern Jun 2016 #6

Bullshit - he missed ONE primary race leftynyc Jun 2016 #21

His numbers have a very good track record liberal N proud Jun 2016 #26

He's not a pollster, so there's that. But the actual pollsters, whose data pnwmom Jun 2016 #35

This message was self-deleted by its author CaptainSensible Jun 2016 #39

Knee jerk trolling much? CaptainSensible Jun 2016 #41

Post removed Post removed Jun 2016 #43

Wow! Gee, you're not predictable. CaptainSensible Jun 2016 #53

I enjoyed this post. Welcome to DU. yardwork Jun 2016 #80

This message was self-deleted by its author CaptainSensible Jun 2016 #55

That's an excellent and informative post PJMcK Jun 2016 #51

Thanks CaptainSensible Jun 2016 #57

Thank you so very much for sticking up for Nate amuse bouche Jun 2016 #71

Ya, place bets against Silver's predictions, that's the way to wealth. You can even do it online. nt fleabiscuit Jun 2016 #45

Bwahahahahaha!!!! JoePhilly Jun 2016 #52

You're absolutely wrong. Nt La Lioness Priyanka Jun 2016 #66

Nate Silver is NOT a pollster. He's a data analyst. Adrahil Jun 2016 #73

No he isn't. 80% chance means that 2 of 10 times he will be wrong. ashtonelijah Jul 2016 #82

You lost shenmue Jul 2016 #88

I hope it becomes more than that... Helen Borg Jun 2016 #4

Exactly !!! A 21% chance of a tRump presidency is far far too much groundloop Jun 2016 #44

Mine too CaptainSensible Jun 2016 #58

If you read his analysis.... Adrahil Jun 2016 #76

We can't get complacent! lark Jun 2016 #7

There is so much "bad news" about Trump yet to come. Emails pale in significance. n/t pnwmom Jun 2016 #36

he had the Golden State Warriors at over 80% to win the NBA Championship too 0rganism Jun 2016 #67

East team winning in NBA = Dem win in Nov? lark Jun 2016 #69

Thank you, onehandle. sheshe2 Jun 2016 #8

Sounds about right. Much more likely than not. Just reading posts Jun 2016 #10

The first non-white president and first woman president win by nation-wide landslides IronLionZion Jun 2016 #15

Silver is Gold Night Watchman Jun 2016 #16

And diamonds are forever PJMcK Jun 2016 #59

So Trump has a 21% chance of winning. How scary that is. totodeinhere Jun 2016 #17

+1 I'll be working as though Trump is leading 51 to 49 ffr Jun 2016 #34

+1000. n.t pnwmom Jun 2016 #38

Russian roulette with 5 chambers marle35 Jul 2016 #87

A good starting place Gothmog Jun 2016 #18

Seeing that the electorate is fairly split, I’ll take only 21% any day! Gamecock Lefty Jun 2016 #19

Nervous til the end. PdxSean Jun 2016 #20

+1. He can't have any chance no matter how remote. The stakes are too high. n/t totodeinhere Jun 2016 #22

Too low! I'm nervous until she gets 100%! truthisfreedom Jun 2016 #23

Message auto-removed Name removed Jun 2016 #27

Clinton, Trump race ‘too close to call’ jamese777 Jun 2016 #28

Nice try. This isn't about one poll. Kingofalldems Jun 2016 #46

In it to win it Lance Bass esquire Jun 2016 #30

Don't make the same mistake the GOP made Android3.14 Jun 2016 #31

Trump has "tapped into" a "serious vein" of NUTJOBS. JoePhilly Jun 2016 #56

You say that Android3.14 Jun 2016 #63

The GOP does not like to admit its base is mainly NUTJOBs. JoePhilly Jun 2016 #65

K&R! Tarheel_Dem Jun 2016 #32

fingers crossed against Trump. nt retrowire Jun 2016 #37

Anyone know where he was at this time with Obama vs Romney? CanonRay Jun 2016 #54

NYT still has the 2012 maps archived mjjoe Jun 2016 #78

wonder what poll results would be if other republican names are plugged in? Sunlei Jun 2016 #60

Predictwise has slightly lower odds Gothmog Jun 2016 #61

79 percent chance Clinton wins Angel Martin Jun 2016 #62

it's a probability analysis. La Lioness Priyanka Jun 2016 #70

It's a model. Model-based analysis is a legitimate technique. NT Adrahil Jun 2016 #72

The money quote for me. bluedigger Jun 2016 #77

Depressing rpannier Jun 2016 #79

If I read there was a 21% chance of a giant asteroid crashing into the Pacific Ocean next year ThoughtCriminal Jun 2016 #81

Post removed Post removed Jul 2016 #83

But let's not sit on our laurels. Beartracks Jul 2016 #84

That 40 plus percent of votes for t'Rump fivethirtyeight predicts scares me. Yonnie3 Jul 2016 #86

OMG OMG OMG it's Gone Down to a Measly 77.6 Percent! Night Watchman Jul 2016 #89