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In the discussion thread: Poll shows Clinton winning Colorado [View all]

Response to uawchild (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 02:30 PM

2. turnout models are the big kielbasa for predictive accuracy

and this year's election is throwing them off. this is not going to be like 2008 or 2012, especially for minority votes.

the Hispanic vote is usually more divided D vs. R, but this year His Trumpiness has decided the Republicans don't need Hispanic voters to put him over the top. it's going to make a big difference in a lot of states, turning leaners into tossups and tossups into blowouts, and the pollsters are going to be flopping around for weeks trying to explain how their predictions didn't account for this.

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uawchild Nov 2016 OP
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0rganism Nov 2016 #2
blue-wave Nov 2016 #3
book_worm Nov 2016 #4
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