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Mr_Jefferson_24

(8,559 posts)

18. Nearly 122,000 votes cast in a...

Wed Jan 4, 2012, 04:14 AM

Jan 2012

... 7 candidate race, with the 1st and 2nd place finishers separated by less than 7 one-thousandths of 1 percent of the total votes cast?

7 ONE-THOUSANDTHS? Really? Anyone with a prob/stat actuarial background out there care to offer some insight as to the likelihood of such a result?

People may recall the initial results of the Kloppenburg-Prosser Supreme Court Judge race in Wisconsin last year also had them separated by a fraction of a percent (something like 14 one-hundredths I think) and it didn't seem to set off any alarms.

Are we being conditioned to accept such results as nothing unusual? Seems to me these frequent virtual dead heat finishes are now all too common and VERY suspect.

Please feel free, anyone, to take me to school on why I shouldn't be bothered by this. I'll try to follow along. Maybe I'm missing something here.

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Breaking: Final result gives Mitt Romney an 8-vote win in Iowa caucuses [View all] Fearless Jan 2012 OP

Santorum seemed to come out of nowhere Rochester Jan 2012 #1

Nah- He's around. Just check google. Ruby the Liberal Jan 2012 #14

that will last long after Santorum has become the santorum of history yurbud Jan 2012 #64

within his lifetime, people will be embarrassed to say his name in polite company or quickly add yurbud Jan 2012 #65

No no sakabatou Jan 2012 #15

DUZY!!! n/t Surya Gayatri Jan 2012 #22

FROTHY!!! n/t boppers Jan 2012 #25

Really? Ass jokes feel so last week. zonkers Jan 2012 #53

Oh, I get it. That's funny because of the internet project to define the word Santorum tclambert Jan 2012 #30

...i take it he did not donate Armin-A Jan 2012 #56

Were I a repuke I would challenge this kenfrequed Jan 2012 #62

NY Times site still not updated Hokie Jan 2012 #2

I respectfully disagree MrBig Jan 2012 #5

Maybe. Lord Magus Jan 2012 #10

That's because he is obviously the stronger candidate in the general against President Obama DWilliamsamh Jan 2012 #41

What about S. Carolina? David__77 Jan 2012 #11

You make some good points MrBig Jan 2012 #49

I spent Xmas in S.C. - Romney may have a bigger problem there onager Jan 2012 #63

You are probably right Hokie Jan 2012 #58

santorum eeks me out also. uppityperson Jan 2012 #3

He's eeky and ooky LisaM Jan 2012 #4

I did didn't I. Nice catch! Fearless Jan 2012 #6

I guess that comment about giving other people's money to blacks nobodyspecial Jan 2012 #7

Huntsman only looks decent by comparison to the other Repigs. Lord Magus Jan 2012 #12

Oh, I wouldn't even consider voting for him nobodyspecial Jan 2012 #55

By 18 votes? Would that trigger a recount? Lil Missy Jan 2012 #8

Nope... Fearless Jan 2012 #9

The vote count doesn't matter - only the delegate count SixthSense Jan 2012 #19

Not true - in fact, the vote is the only thing the matters oberliner Jan 2012 #26

What matters in the end SixthSense Jan 2012 #28

Clinton came in third. And yet all we heard about was Obama and Clinton, not Obama and Edwards. ieoeja Jan 2012 #66

Santorum, once he is *known* will be toast. Guilded Lilly Jan 2012 #13

I AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT Skittles Jan 2012 #29

Pukey. ellisonz Jan 2012 #16

Well, that wasn't very nice of Romney. Major Hogwash Jan 2012 #17

When is the Minnesota primary? Pab Sungenis Jan 2012 #40

I don't know, but Michele decided to pull a Palin. Major Hogwash Jan 2012 #70

Nearly 122,000 votes cast in a... Mr_Jefferson_24 Jan 2012 #18

It's not that uncommon or unlikely ThreePoint Jan 2012 #50

Thank you for your response and the link. Mr_Jefferson_24 Jan 2012 #73

In the coin-flipping example, the odds of getting heads is 50%, ThreePoint Jan 2012 #74

I appreciate your input, Threepoint, and... Mr_Jefferson_24 Jan 2012 #75

SQUEEZES OUT SANTORUM? Skittles Jan 2012 #20

LOL! Great catch... Surya Gayatri Jan 2012 #23

He does look relieved. Ellipsis Jan 2012 #27

I need to know who on DU checked his pants! n/t ejbr Jan 2012 #33

The fix, is in. nt onehandle Jan 2012 #21

Wow, that comes out to about a million $ per vote! Surya Gayatri Jan 2012 #24

And none of them got to 25%. tclambert Jan 2012 #31

Mittens finally gets to drive the clown car liberal N proud Jan 2012 #32

should correct the headline to read SixthSense Jan 2012 #34

Combine that with the decision to count the votes rocktivity Jan 2012 #46

Where's the missing 1 percent votes? itsrobert Jan 2012 #35

There are a few very small counties that have votes still not tallied.. Fearless Jan 2012 #48

It's good for Democrats if the Republicans continue to spend vast sums on close primaries. tclambert Jan 2012 #36

Check out all the exploding heads here! Seems that Karl Rove is a deep cover Democrat! alp227 Jan 2012 #37

It's about delegates so wasn't it a three-way tie? MaineDem Jan 2012 #38

My understanding is the top three... OneBlueDotBama Jan 2012 #42

This is why Maine Dems don't release total numbers from their caucuses MaineDem Jan 2012 #51

Watched the coverage on MSNBC. Interesting take on Gingrich. I'm upset with Bachmann. RickFromMN Jan 2012 #39

Now we know Ted Baxter can take Herb but just barely. EFerrari Jan 2012 #43

Yeah, a regular fucking landslide. Javaman Jan 2012 #44

Fixed by Rove TomClash Jan 2012 #45

My favorite line of last nite... Wait Wut Jan 2012 #47

Iowa.. the pulse of the nation. n/t Corruption Winz Jan 2012 #52

Kaopectate JJW Jan 2012 #54

This pretty much guarantees a Romney nomination. DCBob Jan 2012 #57

I understand that some retired people in Adams County couldn't decide whether or not to reschedule LynnTTT Jan 2012 #59

The title Dead Heat is fitting for these two Republicants........NT MindMover Jan 2012 #60

I heard they found nine spoiled Santorum ballots KamaAina Jan 2012 #61

Actually, this is GREAT NEWS BanTheGOP Jan 2012 #67

Whew! That squeeker took my breath away. Deb Jan 2012 #68

Mitt failed DonCoquixote Jan 2012 #69

Romney Jubilant After Finishing in Dead Heat with Walking Joke in Sweater Vest Zorro Jan 2012 #71

Are there ever recounts in primaries? Ter Jan 2012 #72

Of course primary votes can be recounted but these were caucuses not primaries MaineDem Jan 2012 #76

There will be no recount. Fearless Jan 2012 #77

I wonder if he would have said the same thing if Paul had won by 8 votes Ter Jan 2012 #78

14 votes! dentynepure Jan 2012 #79