NREL Study: Solar Power could provide 100 Times the Amount of Current U.S. Electricity Needs!

[happyslug]

35. The electric car will come, but most people will replace they gas jobs with a bicycle

Remember, most electricity produced today is from Coal, Natural Gas is Number 2, then Nuclear generation. Everything else are minor compared to those three. Solar power will first have to replace Coal, Nuclear and Natural Gas for current electrical use, then fill the increase in electrical use based on present use of electricity, then and only then go after the remaining 84% of the energy used in the US. Manufacturing will embrace electrical use first, then and only then will transport.

The above is enough on its own to bring into question the electric car. Can we increase solar power by a factor of 100 (10 if you skip replacing Coal, Natural gas and Nuclear generation of electricity). That is a HUGE increase, I just do NOT see such an increase in the next 20-50 years. Maybe 50 plus years but now the next 20-50 years. Thus when peak oil hits hard, it will be conservation that is the key to solving the energy crisis not electric cars.

Conservation starts with understanding how to reduce energy use. The most efficient transportation system from an energy point of view is Steel wheel on Steel rail (i.e. a railroad). I foresee a return to electric railroad lines (There was a big movement to electric railroads in the US after about 1900, but the steady reduction in the price of oil from the 1920s to the 1950s killed that movement). I see it coming back, replacing over the road trucking. I actually foresee a side step where over head wires are installed on the Interstate highway system to provide the option of direct electrical feed to trucks (I actually foresee this in the Mountains of the West, electric drive can provide more power for climbing a mountain, thus permitting maximum fuel savings AND speeding up the trucks as they go through the mountains).

The military will retain oil based systems, due to the lighter weight of jet fuel and jet engine over electric storage device and electric proposition (and some electrical power will be diverted to making bio-fuel for the military).

I foresee ambulances and fire engines going electrical, but these will be battery operated systems to permit maximum flexibility. The problem is once you start to look beyond these means of transportation, the cost to operate electric cars start NOT to make economic sense. i.e. cheaper for people to opt to ride a bike or walk to work then retain a car in the form of an electric car, especially as the demand for electricity increase due to the increase use of electricity in transportation.

If people would be willing to live in tighter cities (As was the norm in the 1800s) people could opt NOT to have a vehicle, only paying for one as needed (a taxi). Most people could then walk to work and under an ideal situation Solar Roof panels could provide all the electrical power needed to operate the house (i.e. the lights, the refrigerator, the stove etc, with the only outside power needed being electrical power to heat and cool the house). This would free up centralized Solar power system for transportation use (and heating and cooling). Such a system would force anyone who wanted electrical transportation to pay for the centralized electricity being generated. I foresee price being used to "Ration" such electricity due to the shortage of such electricity. Thus forcing many people to re-think where they live, shop and work (i.e. return to a more early 20th century urban environment, smaller homes better insulated then the homes of 1900 and with electrical solar panels in place of a roof. Such Solar roofs could provide all the power the household would need for day to day use, but transportation, heating and cooling would be another factor. To keep the electric bill low people will try to minimize all three, opting for a hotter house in summer, cooler house in winter and using some other means of transportation then a family car. All due to a severe electrical storage that will be addressed by high electrical rates (i.e. prices will be high to discourage use)

Now the same high rates will apply to all means of transportation. Thus you will see the various form of transportation look at ways to minimize electrical use. Electric vehicles using overhead wires avoids the loss of energy related to charging and discharging whatever is the storage device. i.e. Streetcars use less electricity then battery operated cars do to the fact that the electricity used in the Streetcars does NOT have to charge a battery first and then from the battery used to move the vehicle. Furthermore Streetcars can save weight by NOT having to haul around the batteries used to store the electricity needed by the Streetcars (through the streetcars will loss power from the over head cable depending on how far the car is from the electrical power source, but that loss is way lower then the loss do to charging and discharging a battery). As I said above, I foresee the Trucking industry also slowly adopting electrical overhead wires to provide power to its trucks. I also foresee this as a temporary solution for sooner or later the superior energy conservation of Steel Wheel on Steel Rail will drive long distance trucking out of business. Trucking will retain short haul business, with most major intercity roads having overhead wires and computers on the trucks to determine how much electricity they pull from the lines. The trucks will also have limited battery power to get to and from side streets when that is needed.

I foresee a electrical power train stopping at its station, leaving it rail cars behind (Mostly pallets but trailers also). The trucks pull into the station and an electrical overhead system moves the pallet to the truck (or the truck hooks up to a trailer off the train itself). All this time the trucks are powered by an over head wire. The trucks, still on the over head wire, would then take the local roads to the nearest intersection to where it wants to go. If it is business, the business would have its own overhead wires for the truckers to use, if the cargo is going someplace without such an electrical overhead wire, the truck will switch to its battery for the short haul to and from where the cargo is to go.

Most people will NOT have access to the overhead wires. I foresee it being reserved to trucks, buses and streetcars. People who opt for electric cars will have to pay a high price to charge the car even on off peak hours, for everyone will be charging whatever they want to use later at the same time (Prices will encourage such off peak charging, but as use of electricity evens out the price difference will slowly be reduced).

The overhead wire system will favor areas with the overhead wire system, but do to their costs of upkeep restricted to high population areas. These same over head wired area will quickly became where business wants to be for it will be where they can reduce their energy costs the most (Which is why the old Downtowns were the place to be prior to the reduction of the price of oil starting in the 1930s). Some of the areas around the post 1960 malls will become urban centers in themselves, but will slowly replace the parking lots around the malls with buildings (Most over the parking lots, then closing off the parking lots). At first these new buildings will be housing for workers in the mall, then other people without access to an electric car (And access means able to afford not only to buy an electric car but to operate it by keeping it charged).

States will look at how to build up the over head electrical system the trucking industry will want AND to pay for paving the roads that the trucking industry will want the state to maintain. A good bet this will be added to whatever is the electrical bill people are paying (Further forcing more and more people to opt for solar panels on their own roofs). Electrical bills will sky rocket, some source of revenue will have to be found to replace the tax on gasoline and that will be a tax on electricity or electric cars (Probably both). This will drive more and more people to opt for other means of transportation other then by electric cars i.e. walking, biking and taking public transportation, which in turn will lead to more densely populated urban areas (Apartment buildings will become the norm, for most such apartments do NOT need central heating, the people in the Apartment complex are enough to keep it warm, the problem will be keeping the complex cool, even in winter, but a careful design of windows, air flow with limited Air Conditioning can keep even a large complex cool at very low use of electricity).

People tend to forget that prior to WWII the vast majority of Americans did NOT own a car, it was the post WWII era and the rise of suburbia that saw most Americans own a car. Given what I expect to happen to the price of oil and the demand for electricity I foresee most Americans returning to how they great grand parents lived, except with access to the net, better housing, better health care, large screen TVs and other modern conveniences (Living in small homes or apartments and using public transportation when the distance is to far to walk).

In rural areas, I foresee people opting for electric cars, but keeping use down by making sure all trips are to the nearest rail=head where they can get on a train. Bicycles and horse drawn vehicles will be competitors to electrical cars, and I mean serious competitors do to the much lower cost to operate them given the high price for electricity NOT generated on the farm. Most farmers will want to retain whatever electrical generation of the farm for farm use, opting for other means if possible. The real issue is how much will it cost a farmer (both in price AND lost of acres to farm) to set up enough solar panels to power up his electrical tractors (and if the cost would exceed the cost of returning to the horse as the main means of energy for farm work). Even today, on farms of 50 acres or less it is more profitable to use a horse then a tractor (Now most farmers could NOT pay their taxes on such a farm from what the farmer can produce on those 50 acres, but I am ignoring that factor in this article).

The real issue will be, what would be cheaper, sell off 1/2 to 3/4 of the farm so that the remaining land can be farmed by one farmer and a horse, or retain the larger farm and buy solar panels to charge the electric tractor. That will depend mostly on the cost of the Panels and how long the panels will last. Further north the less sunlight and thus more likley horses will trump electric tractors, further south and west more sunlight more electrical tractors (but tied in with more sunlight is less water). Unlike urban areas to many ifs for rural areas and the horse is always the back up if all else fails.

As to suburbia, I see it slowly dying. People will try to save it, but horses are NOT a good option for Suburbia and neither is the use of high density population core. Bicycles, motor scooters and electric bikes will be tried, but found wanting. Trucking companies will charge a premium to ship anything to suburbia (i.e. the same price as rural areas) but the option of using the horse will be out (Suburbia is to urban to permit the use of horses as a fright hauling means). The plots of land will be to small to charge an electric car for daily use, and the high price of electricity do to the needs to improve the electrical system and the highway system will slowly force people out (i.e. cost to charge the car will exceed the income earned at work thus have to move closer to work or quit work, quitting work will NOT be an option so moving will be, maybe twice, again when the work place decides to move to cut energy (electrical) costs.

My point is I just do NOT see society moving so fast that it can replace not only its electrical energy but its transportation energy costs with solar panels within 50 years. That is to demand an increase of over at least 100 times what solar panels are producing today. Thus electric cars will be part of the future over the next 50 years, but we will NOT have the electrical energy from solar power to power those cars. Price will sooner or later come into play as a form of rationing. Most people will have to abandon the concept of owning their own automobile (or at least operating it on a daily basis). People will have to adjust how their get to work, but where they live, they will have to move closer to work, shop and send their children to school.

Now, before you say people can work at home, I see most things that can be done at home slowly losing value, i.e. people interacting with other people will be paid much more then a person working at home. I have already seen this in the Legal Profession, many contracts and other legal documents are now prepared in India by Indian lawyers. They know and practice in English, they understand common law concepts and since the standard of living in India is much lower then in the US can produce legal papers at much lower costs. Like piece work in Japan, I suspect a lot of at home work will be done by stay at home moms at some low piece rate. probably lower then minimum wage if you look at the hours put into the at home work. Thus getting to and from a work site will become more and more important for any job paying a decent wage and that means getting to and from work. Thus transportation will still be a factor in the next 50 years. People need clothes, housing, food, they want their home appliances repaired (or replaced). They want to feel like they can get a fair hearing in front of the Judge (Unlike Lawyers who write for a living, litigators have held they own when it comes to income, for the simple reason they are going to court.

Thus transportation costs will remain the biggest use of energy over the next 50 years, presently it is overwhelming oil based, electric cars have barely made a dent in transportation. I would say, Amtrak and its electric engines on the East Coast equals if not exceed the electric cars and hybrids when it comes to using electricity in transportation.

Requiring Railroads to electrify would be a good first step in conservation and the US has NOT even tried to force Railroads to electrify. Conrail de-electrify itself in 1980. Besides Amtrak, Conrail was the last Railroad to use electric power, it switched for only the old Pennsylvania lines on the East Coast were electric. Pennsylvania Railroad had NEVER electrified its lines west of Harrisburg PA, or south of Washington DC. By 1980, Conrail was diesel everywhere but the east coast. As to the East Coast, Conrail was diesel on the old New York Central and other non-former Pennsylvania Railroad lines. Thus Conrail ended up having two means of power, electric locomotive on the old Pennsylvania East Coast lines, diesel everywhere else. In 1980 Conrail decided to go to one type of power, and that was diesel

The Pennsylvania Railroad had electrified its main line in 1910 as part of its plan to open Penn Station in New York City. To open that station the Pennsylvania railroad had to build a 1,900 m (6,100 ft) tunnel under the Hudson River with additional underground tunnels in Manhattan itself AND in New Jersey (Total length of the rail line built in 1904-1910 is 14,575 feet or 4,442 m). You could NOT operate steam locomotives on that line given the length of the tunnel, so electric locomotives were used instead, this started the Pennsylvania Railroad to electrified its whole line, but only did the East Coast by the 1930s when the project stopped. The Pennsylvania Railroad converted to Diesel in the 1950s. The tunnels were sold to Amtrak in 1976 so the Tunnels are owned by Amtrak NOT Norfolk and Southern (who purchased Conrail, with Norfolk and Southern generally getting the old Pennsylvania railroad and the B&O getting most of what had been the New York Central). From what I can tell no diesel operate in these tunnels, only used by passenger trains, Amtrak and New Jersey Transit, both of which operate electric trains.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Tunnel_Extension

Just pointing out, the first step would be to have the railroads electrify, but no one is even proposing that. Norfolk and Southern operates diesel locomotives on tracks it shares with Amtrak, but Norfolk and Southern uses diesels on those tracks, while Amtrak uses overhead wires. Thus no one has really done anything to switch transportation to electricity and until that is done, solar panels will have little effect on transportation compared to oil.