Poll: Dem leads by 14 in Virginia governors race

[onenote]

7. I'm very skeptical about these numbers

While Democrats have won three of the last four Virginia governor's races, their largest margin of victory in those races was less than 7 points and McAuliffe's margin of victory in the most recent (2013) contest was less than 3 points (and McAuliffe got less than 48% of the vote). Plus, in Gillespie's 2014 senate contest against Mark Warner, Gillespie got 48.3 percent of the vote despite the presence of a Libertarian on the ballot (Warner won with 49.1 percent). The last Virginia governor's race in which the Democrat received 53 percent or more of the vote was in 1985.

This race is likely to be a lot like the Warner/Gillespie contest -- a nail biter.