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karynnj

(60,746 posts)

68. It is better for us if they think Moore is going to win

Mon Dec 11, 2017, 01:20 PM

Dec 2017

This will possibly be a turn out event. The more certain Republicans are in their view that this is a seat they are extremely unlikely to win, the less they will be able to get people out. Complacency on their part is better.

Yet, I suspect that even with this outlier of a poll, they are as unlikely to believe a Democrat could win as Massachusetts voters were to believe that a Republican could take one of their Senate seats - both held by Democrats since Ed Brooke was Senator. Yet, the polling there was much more favorable for Brown -- even as Presidents Obama and Clinton campaigned - even Senator Kerry, only a week after hip surgery, seemed to make more appearances than the candidate!

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_special_election-1144.html

I suspect the polling for the Alabama race is a tricky mess as you likely have people unwilling to say out loud that they are going to vote for a Republican who likely abused a 14 year old or a Democrat, who genuinely seems to be a nice guy.

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Fox News poll: Jones leads Moore by 10 points [View all] highplainsdem Dec 2017 OP

I'm keeping my expectations in check fountainofyouth Dec 2017 #1

I dont trust any poll MontanaMama Dec 2017 #2

Ditto this JustAnotherGen Dec 2017 #6

I don't trust any "fox" poll.... getagrip_already Dec 2017 #25

If Fox was rigging the poll, they would still have Moore ahead by a tiny margin ollie10 Dec 2017 #34

On the contrary, MGKrebs Dec 2017 #43

Fox polls used to be trashed because they were pro-Republican. former9thward Dec 2017 #86

Fox News polls are actually very good DrToast Dec 2017 #63

Scientifically most accurate and reliable poll so far. And the latest: Fred Sanders Dec 2017 #73

These comments suggest that this pollster has a likely voter model that is assuming that karynnj Dec 2017 #82

There is this this about Emerson and Morning Consults unusual methodology: Fred Sanders Dec 2017 #83

Good to know nt karynnj Dec 2017 #85

I agree. djg21 Dec 2017 #71

Exactly! Oneironaut Dec 2017 #62

This is a way to get the base out to vote MiniMe Dec 2017 #3

My thoughts exactly. Owl Dec 2017 #9

Plus motivate repubs who may be sitting it out. Merlot Dec 2017 #20

And Bingo! ToxMarz Dec 2017 #45

Bingo! ToxMarz Dec 2017 #44

Nailed it. JHB Dec 2017 #54

It is NOT the only poll! And it is the latest poll from a right leaning outfit. Why so glum?? Fred Sanders Dec 2017 #57

Yep. This is a motivator to get the base out JDC Dec 2017 #80

Great news, if accurate. TheCowsCameHome Dec 2017 #4

And if the GOPee doesn't steal it. sandensea Dec 2017 #53

The Franken Effect? 10 points is way outside the margin of error. How is Faux handling this? Fred Sanders Dec 2017 #58

Unfortunately, this is highly suspect. Oneironaut Dec 2017 #64

Fox News trying to do two things HopeAgain Dec 2017 #5

Plus 1000000 JustAnotherGen Dec 2017 #7

Also... Dopers_Greed Dec 2017 #12

Yep...that poll is BS or FOX would never report it as such............ Bengus81 Dec 2017 #18

It's damned sad that a "NEWS" organization participates in political propaganda groundloop Dec 2017 #36

The poll is scientific. Legit by any standard of scientific polling. Fred Sanders Dec 2017 #69

Really? Better get those rigged up voting machines installed toot sweet.... Bengus81 Dec 2017 #8

This message was self-deleted by its author enough Dec 2017 #11

Paper ballots. Strange number of naysayers here! Fred Sanders Dec 2017 #72

Not really. MGKrebs Dec 2017 #88

Richard Shelby's coming out against Moore might be enough to get Jones elected. Botany Dec 2017 #10

Moore advocates the return of SLAVERY. Eyeball_Kid Dec 2017 #17

You have generations of institutional and social pressure keeping the A.A. vote down and or .... Botany Dec 2017 #22

He probably dreams of 14-year-old slaves to serve his every need. Doodley Dec 2017 #24

NBC's Today Show ... left-of-center2012 Dec 2017 #13

Yes. Assume nothing. Fox News is propaganda, pure and simple. They will always lie. Eyeball_Kid Dec 2017 #15

or to suppress Jones votes, by staying home and being complacent about an easy win. I don't see an secondwind Dec 2017 #23

That is what I fear. riversedge Dec 2017 #35

Link? Fred Sanders Dec 2017 #74

Ask and you shall receive left-of-center2012 Dec 2017 #75

Massive vote fraud will be in play. GOPers know how to pull this one off. Eyeball_Kid Dec 2017 #14

Like Ive said over and over, We are talking about ALABAMA................ Old Vet Dec 2017 #16

According to the 538 guys . . . MrModerate Dec 2017 #19

Maybe Moore's right, this has some aspect of a referendum on Trump in Trump territory. Go Jones! marble falls Dec 2017 #21

Fox wants energized anti-Moore voters to think they can stay home tomorrow. L. Coyote Dec 2017 #26

+1000 Pachamama Dec 2017 #37

And scare the pedophile-philes into showing up. Dave Starsky Dec 2017 #90

Say what? EricMaundry Dec 2017 #27

I am very skeptical of the polls because I think it is a much more fluid situation, however, if still_one Dec 2017 #28

The only poll that counts is the vote tally. old guy Dec 2017 #29

I have to ask again... Saviolo Dec 2017 #30

Plus not fooled Dec 2017 #33

For one thing, we know he's a buddy of Jeff Sessions FakeNoose Dec 2017 #47

Harry Enten (538) report two more polls due out today. brooklynite Dec 2017 #31

Fake news. Everyone know Moore is leading by a gazillion. louis-t Dec 2017 #32

Considering the source of the poll...yeah, right. C Moon Dec 2017 #38

Lying propaganda by the right wing to try to get Dem voters to stay home tomorrow. nt iluvtennis Dec 2017 #39

Independents+ 29 Jones and 'more moral" Jones +30. Comments are hilarious: Fred Sanders Dec 2017 #67

This is Virginia type numbers... yallerdawg Dec 2017 #40

The Virginia vote happened on paper ballots FakeNoose Dec 2017 #49

Alabama does paper ballots. yallerdawg Dec 2017 #50

Awesome FakeNoose Dec 2017 #52

Every county by Alabama State Code! yallerdawg Dec 2017 #60

I really hope we do the same thing in PA for next year FakeNoose Dec 2017 #84

It's FOX news guys awesomerwb1 Dec 2017 #41

Did they use the Sir Humphrey Appleby method? nycbos Dec 2017 #42

Not all publicity is good publicity jamzrockz Dec 2017 #46

Took me weeks to get over the confidence I had in polls packman Dec 2017 #48

These type of stories are meant to make people think they don't need to vote kimbutgar Dec 2017 #51

I certainly hope so. David__77 Dec 2017 #55

Trying to scare Moore voters out to the polls tomorrow I'll bet. Kablooie Dec 2017 #56

Hope it works out like that, but these polls have a lot of seemingly conflicting data. Hoyt Dec 2017 #59

Not gonna happen SpankMe Dec 2017 #61

my money say's bluestarone Dec 2017 #65

Fox news suppressing the dem vote workinclasszero Dec 2017 #66

Bingo dalton99a Dec 2017 #89

It is better for us if they think Moore is going to win karynnj Dec 2017 #68

Democrats attacking scientific polls even if in OUR favor is not scientific. Fred Sanders Dec 2017 #70

Remember all the polls that said Hillary had it in the bag? workinclasszero Dec 2017 #76

Remember the final polls just before the election that said the opposite? Some do! Fred Sanders Dec 2017 #77

Why 2016 election polls missed their mark workinclasszero Dec 2017 #79

I was not attacking scientific polls -- I am not sure which ones you even think I question! karynnj Dec 2017 #78

Thanks. Just making the point the Fox poll is more scientific than say landline Emerson College if Fred Sanders Dec 2017 #81

LOVE this kitty!!!! SO expressive! Doitnow Dec 2017 #91

Trying to make Trump look heroic? onenote Dec 2017 #87

FiveThirtyEight's explanation is pretty good Julian Englis Dec 2017 #92