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cemaphonic

(4,138 posts)

39. 538 had a better read on the 2016 election than all of the other pundits and aggregators.

Wed May 23, 2018, 01:38 PM

May 2018

Yes, they saw Clinton as the probable winner, but they were only giving her a 66% chance of winning, instead of the +90% odds that some others were predicting. They also hedged their bets pretty heavily running up to the election, with several articles running up to the election, including one that outlined the scenario that actually happened (polling weakness in one state ended up being reflected in several nearby states).

They're statisticians, not fortune tellers - A missed prediction, even a high-profile one like a Presidential election doesn't really invalidate their model.

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Reuters poll shows Republicans leading generic ballot for first time [View all] The Hitman May 2018 OP

Get ready for the fix. RhodeIslandOne May 2018 #1

Vote. The Hitman May 2018 #5

I will and have as I have for every election since 1994. RhodeIslandOne May 2018 #10

Agreed on the fight for votes part. Dawson Leery May 2018 #2

Vote. The Hitman May 2018 #6

Do you think you are saying something anyone here doesn't know? enough May 2018 #16

Vote...I agree with the sentiment of your suggestion pecosbob May 2018 #3

Vote. We thought the same in 2016. The Hitman May 2018 #9

I call bullshit vercetti2021 May 2018 #4

Vote. Also, Stars suuuuuuuuuuuck ;) The Hitman May 2018 #7

I am no worries lol vercetti2021 May 2018 #8

:) The Hitman May 2018 #12

Lmao vercetti2021 May 2018 #14

As we used to say in Chicago, in old days, quartz007 May 2018 #11

Expect 38-39% "baked in" support for GOP slumcamper May 2018 #13

I agree, but I think that the biggest problem facing our leadership The Hitman May 2018 #15

Saw a news article that said 78% of democratic voters want a more progressive agenda. rwsanders May 2018 #21

one suspects current leadership is incapable of bold moves and bold actions. msongs May 2018 #25

Independents. NOMOGOP May 2018 #31

The result of such passive resistance to Trump. Doodley May 2018 #17

I think "Republicans winning" is the wrong conclusion to draw from this poll Dopers_Greed May 2018 #18

Also I don't buy the generic ballot garbage still_one May 2018 #20

It is certainly misleading in that individual races are what really matter. n/t PoliticAverse May 2018 #27

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ still_one May 2018 #33

This is just an online poll with volunteer responders. No statistical probability can be calculated pnwmom May 2018 #19

538 Gave it an A- rating The Hitman May 2018 #22

538 also MFM008 May 2018 #36

To be fair, she was the actual winner Dopers_Greed May 2018 #38

538 had a better read on the 2016 election than all of the other pundits and aggregators. cemaphonic May 2018 #39

That statement is misleading as it implies this is just an Internet poll w/self-selected respondants PoliticAverse May 2018 #26

Non probability methods are still experimental and "margin of error" cannot be calculated. pnwmom May 2018 #29

This is sickening. Duppers May 2018 #23

A Lot of Germans Supported Hitler. Racism, Sexism and Xenophobia Are the New Normal TomCADem May 2018 #24

Bullshit MFM008 May 2018 #28

here is a link to play with the data Exotica May 2018 #30

Wow, a little over a 1% spread. Hugin May 2018 #32

There are reasons bucolic_frolic May 2018 #34

I truly do not believe this poll is reflective of voting reality. Alethia Merritt May 2018 #35

Thanks for that! lagomorph777 May 2018 #41

Yet there is this bronxiteforever May 2018 #37

Oh shit. lagomorph777 May 2018 #40