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Jim Lane

(11,175 posts)

61. As I said, she'll likely win even if he's splitting the vote.

Fri Jul 13, 2018, 04:33 PM

Jul 2018

Nevertheless, that's no reason to be complacent.

Ocasio-Cortez had a lot of volunteers and countered Crowley's spending advantage with a strong GOTV operation. In the general election, when the less motivated voters are more likely to show up, he would probably do somewhat better.

The concern is the splitting of the vote. Ocasio-Cortez can't win the seat just by again outpolling Crowley. If Crowley on the WFP line were to pull a significant percentage of the people who normally vote Democratic, then Ocasio-Cortez could beat him and yet still finish behind the Republican (e.g. Republican 39%, Ocasio-Cortez 38%, Crowley 21%, miscellaneous others 2%). If I had to bet on the election, I'd bet that that would NOT happen, but then, I would've bet that Trump wouldn't be nominated, let alone elected.

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Highlight:

Ocasio-Cortez Confronts Crowley Over His 'Third-Party Challenge' [View all] Tarc Jul 2018 OP

Apparently Crowley didn't get the message. LiberalFighter Jul 2018 #1

Joe Crowley has already conceded.. it's AOC who made the "mistake".. Cha Jul 2018 #64

I wonder if an apology will be forthcoming? George II Jul 2018 #67

Seems it's been on the downlow.. mustn't Cha Jul 2018 #68

Class indeed. It would. But will she? NurseJackie Jul 2018 #109

It is possible we will see more and more that it is individuals running for office vs a party Equinox Moon Jul 2018 #2

He's not "running third party". He has thrown his support to AOC emulatorloo Jul 2018 #10

What is "AOC"? Equinox Moon Jul 2018 #11

"AOC" are the initials of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's name emulatorloo Jul 2018 #12

AOC tweet: "...he's mounting a 3rd party challenge against me and the Democratic Party..." Equinox Moon Jul 2018 #15

And Crowley tweet reiterates that he supports her and is not running 3rd party emulatorloo Jul 2018 #18

"..called Crowley's team Thursday to admit the information she blasted out on twitter was "a mistake Cha Jul 2018 #65

She is mistaken. And used it as a fundraising ploy... bettyellen Jul 2018 #77

That seems to be a bit deceptive. NurseJackie Jul 2018 #110

Between the nonsense about "dark money" and people calling Emily's List "the establishment" bettyellen Jul 2018 #112

I chuckle every time I hear them use "the establishment" as a pejorative. NurseJackie Jul 2018 #113

I explained to a friend that they're just slighting people who stand up for human rights- and bettyellen Jul 2018 #114

That phrase is straight out of the 60s protest movement and a certain... brush Jul 2018 #128

I am so pissed at the NY Times ever since the WMD garbage. They have been stiring this kind of crap still_one Jul 2018 #17

NYT Working for Putin now? lagomorph777 Jul 2018 #53

no, but stirring the pot unecessarily to gain readership still_one Jul 2018 #55

In typical NYT fashion, it's not the full story RandySF Jul 2018 #3

It's not? Well fill us in then tkmorris Jul 2018 #4

More info in an earlier thread: emulatorloo Jul 2018 #7

I don't have time and you seem wound up for a fight RandySF Jul 2018 #8

He's a democrat recentevents Jul 2018 #5

He is supporting Ocasio-Cortez. He Isn't running third party. emulatorloo Jul 2018 #13

Her inexperience is showing. She's overreacting to an inaccurate... brush Jul 2018 #54

He IS supporting her. Pay attention, FFS. NT Adrahil Jul 2018 #41

FFS? recentevents Jul 2018 #58

The links that have been provided to you explain it all. sheshe2 Jul 2018 #78

I guess you haven't been keeping up on the "recent events". George II Jul 2018 #73

Lol sheshe2 Jul 2018 #80

yeah, so clever recentevents Jul 2018 #81

Lots of peeps make fun of mine. sheshe2 Jul 2018 #83

HAHA recentevents Jul 2018 #108

... NurseJackie Jul 2018 #111

Yet he had graciously conceded... sheshe2 Jul 2018 #117

Welcome to DU. If you consider that an "insult", stick around for a while. You should see what.... George II Jul 2018 #85

Me too mcar Jul 2018 #97

Danger Of Splitting The Vote Progressive2020 Jul 2018 #6

Democrats outnumber Republicans 6:1 in the district. lapucelle Jul 2018 #38

The Republican is not the issue. former9thward Jul 2018 #116

Dead people routinely win elections in the US? lapucelle Jul 2018 #118

Yes. former9thward Jul 2018 #120

The Democrats in the 14th will vote for the Democrat lapucelle Jul 2018 #121

What would you expect her to say? former9thward Jul 2018 #122

Less than 4200 vote margin isn't "smoking". George II Jul 2018 #123

I would expect the candidate to tell the truth. lapucelle Jul 2018 #134

The last time someone who died during a campaign was elected, as far as I know... George II Jul 2018 #124

Most of the time you don't hear about it because the election is not high profile. former9thward Jul 2018 #125

So now to bolster your position you're using the right-wing" argument: George II Jul 2018 #127

Sorry to bring you to reality. former9thward Jul 2018 #129

They obviously did not smear nor crush Obama, since he went on to be Senator. SunSeeker Jul 2018 #133

Sorry to bring you back to reality. former9thward Jul 2018 #135

No, you have the wrong take about that. Obama made rookie mistakes that he learned from. SunSeeker Jul 2018 #136

"rookie mistakes" former9thward Jul 2018 #137

Politics is all about relationships. SunSeeker Jul 2018 #138

He's no worry bucolic_frolic Jul 2018 #9

F**K THE NY TIMES. I will wait tell I hear from a reliable source. The NY TIMES is NO LONGER a still_one Jul 2018 #14

The NYT is a reliable source. Crowley could fix this by working to remove his name from the ballot Tarc Jul 2018 #19

You think that HEADLINE from the NY Times is accurate. You can have your NY Times. still_one Jul 2018 #20

nice to see a politician who knows to steer clear of the twitter cesspool nt msongs Jul 2018 #22

Apparently, not. That would have been the end of the Working Families Party, for me. Mc Mike Jul 2018 #16

from the article: scipan Jul 2018 #21

I think Crowley just wants some damn respect. joshcryer Jul 2018 #23

I would hesitate to trust a politician to take himself out of running. scipan Jul 2018 #32

He has until September 19. joshcryer Jul 2018 #33

well, it would help if he called her and conceeded. n/t scipan Jul 2018 #34

He conceded the night of the election. joshcryer Jul 2018 #35

Right, he reached out but didn't connect, yet he's being slammed for not doing so! George II Jul 2018 #43

It would help if she didn't make horrible accusations against a man on record as supporting her - bettyellen Jul 2018 #79

So what happens Sept 19? scipan Jul 2018 #36

Last day for ballot changes according to the calendar. joshcryer Jul 2018 #37

Yes, the nomination for another position is a well-established New York gimmick Jim Lane Jul 2018 #24

Announcing his principle residence as Alexandria would absolutely work. joshcryer Jul 2018 #26

Crowley may want to run for office in the future in New York. lapucelle Jul 2018 #39

Why should he change his residence simply to satisfy whim of someone else? He lives in Queens.... George II Jul 2018 #42

He grew up in Queens, went to Powers Memorial HS in the Bronx, lapucelle Jul 2018 #57

That last thought is eerily familiar. George II Jul 2018 #60

I'm familiar with the campus. lapucelle Jul 2018 #66

Apparently the source of the frequently debunked lapucelle Jul 2018 #72

:) Even the RW NY Post thinks Ocasio is overdoing her attacks Hortensis Jul 2018 #93

The NYP used their reliable "Red Alert" headline the day after AOC won lapucelle Jul 2018 #94

Agitprop for right and left, stirring the pot... Hortensis Jul 2018 #96

I live the next county over lapucelle Jul 2018 #98

Oh, best of luck on unseating those two. Hortensis Jul 2018 #101

I'm sure she'll be listening to local voices as well as to Corbin Trent, lapucelle Jul 2018 #104

Good heavens. :) Thanks for the chuckle. Hortensis Jul 2018 #107

Gaming the system in these ways carries no opprobrium Jim Lane Jul 2018 #44

It's stunning that anyone would propse lapucelle Jul 2018 #50

There's nothing stunning about admitting that he no longer lives in the district. Jim Lane Jul 2018 #52

If she campaigned on the idea that he lost touch with the districr lapucelle Jul 2018 #56

As I said, she'll likely win even if he's splitting the vote. Jim Lane Jul 2018 #61

The fact is he DOES live in the district. It's an insult that anyone would claim he doesn't. George II Jul 2018 #87

Maybe you're insulting him by claiming he's abandoned his children, who live in Virginia. Jim Lane Jul 2018 #90

Thankfully I live in the real world. George II Jul 2018 #103

Bernie has a house in the Washington area. Do you claim he R B Garr Jul 2018 #115

Of course not, and no one who read my post fairly could think so. (n/t) Jim Lane Jul 2018 #119

Your post had only one real fact to it by your own admission. R B Garr Jul 2018 #131

More's the pity that Ocasio-Cortez swallowed, then regurgitated, this rat-fucking "scandal". OilemFirchen Jul 2018 #25

She created this "scandal." Ironically, she could easily sue to have him off the ballot. joshcryer Jul 2018 #27

That is what it sounds like to me, and the media is only too willing to accomodate and distort this still_one Jul 2018 #28

Perhaps. OilemFirchen Jul 2018 #29

Exactly. We know he'll get at most 1% of the votes or something like that. joshcryer Jul 2018 #30

It's unseemly, too. OilemFirchen Jul 2018 #31

Exactly. And now we see she is campaigning against incumbent R B Garr Jul 2018 #132

She knew BEFORE the Primary that he was going to be the WFP candidate. Maybe before she.... George II Jul 2018 #40

So what was she supposed to do? Jim Lane Jul 2018 #45

What is she supposed to do? Nothing. And that includes NOT complaining about something.... George II Jul 2018 #46

It is NOT built into the election law that Crowley MUST stay on the ballot against the Democrat. Jim Lane Jul 2018 #47

So you're calling for him to change his legal residence and, along with it, his voter registration? George II Jul 2018 #49

Precisely. He would change his legal residence to match his actual residence. Jim Lane Jul 2018 #51

It seems that for some, stripping a person of their home and identity lapucelle Jul 2018 #59

Cool the hyperbole. His actual home is in Virginia. Jim Lane Jul 2018 #63

... lapucelle Jul 2018 #69

BS. He grew up in Queens, he went to school in Queens (HS in the Bronx), college in Queens, and.... George II Jul 2018 #71

Apparently, some people put more faith in a debunked lapucelle Jul 2018 #74

If that story were "true", then probably about 95% of all Representatives and Senators.... George II Jul 2018 #75

If you have a purported debunking, please share. Jim Lane Jul 2018 #84

If Crowley runs for office again, New Yorkers like me will remember the work he has done. lapucelle Jul 2018 #92

So the "right wing talking point" is true. Jim Lane Jul 2018 #95

No, the right wing, anti-Democratic Party talking point is not true. lapucelle Jul 2018 #99

Asking Crowley to move is a true sign of weakness on the part of AOC Gothmog Jul 2018 #102

It seems Ocasio-Cortez is a fan of double standards. KitSileya Jul 2018 #91

Some are even asserting that it's "hyperbolic" to characterize demands lapucelle Jul 2018 #100

That is just a flat-out lie. Jim Lane Jul 2018 #105

She had a ready-made way to get out of the second nomination. KitSileya Jul 2018 #106

"Maybe before she starts" Tarc Jul 2018 #48

Thank you recentevents Jul 2018 #62

At this point, he can not remove his name................ riversedge Jul 2018 #76

AOC is the one who Accused Joe Crowley of "mounting" Cha Jul 2018 #70

If he does not take steps to remove his name, then he effectively is mounting one Tarc Jul 2018 #88

OAC was Wrong to accuse him on Twitter.. her campaign admitted the "mistake".. Cha Jul 2018 #89

Will Crowley and AOC both be on the Nov General ballot yodermon Jul 2018 #82

As of now, yes, they will. Jim Lane Jul 2018 #86

it is funny to see DonCoquixote Jul 2018 #126

Except he's not actually running third party. No rallys. No Ads. No Phone Banking. He endorsed AOC emulatorloo Jul 2018 #130