Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Berlin Expat

(961 posts)
33. The most likely scenario
Fri Jan 10, 2020, 04:11 AM
Jan 2020

in my opinion, and I'm just speculating here, is that the Iranian air defense network sighted the airliner on their radar and mistook it for, who knows, maybe a B-52 or something and failed to properly identify the target before firing.

That being said, it's also quite likely that air traffic control at Khomeini International Airport might well have failed to notify the air defense network that a civilian airliner was taking off and because the air defense network personnel didn't know this, tragedy ensued. After all, this happened in the middle of a situation where air defense would've been on a hair-trigger and if they didn't know that a civilian plane was about to pop up on their radars, they might well have assumed that the target was an incoming US strike.

It seems like there's plenty of blame to go around, and as happened before, miscommunication - or failure to communicate in a timely manner - can lead to disaster.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

If true, then in a reality where America did not kill Soleimani, those passengers wouldn't be dead. Girard442 Jan 2020 #1
You could also say that if Soleimani hadn't spent most of his time causing mayhem in other countries EX500rider Jan 2020 #3
This was a country that debated the morality of killing Admiral Yamamoto rzemanfl Jan 2020 #6
"Causing mayhem in other countries." ZZenith Jan 2020 #10
US does bad things does not mean Iran does not do bad things. EX500rider Jan 2020 #17
So you're ok with other countries taking out our generals with drones. ZZenith Jan 2020 #19
I'm okay with taking out terrorists by drone strike ripcord Jan 2020 #21
What the fuck was "Shock and Awe" if not wholesale terrorism?! ZZenith Jan 2020 #22
It is armed conflict ripcord Jan 2020 #24
Actually it was a war crime if you want to be technical about the definition. ZZenith Jan 2020 #25
Would not have killed US soldiers had W not lied us into Iraq Invasion. rickyhall Jan 2020 #12
Post removed Post removed Jan 2020 #18
Maybe had we not put the Shaw in there over their elected leader they wouldn't hate us. rickyhall Jan 2020 #20
More and more of them miss the Peacock Throne every year compared to the Ayatollahs. EX500rider Jan 2020 #29
Is that what your TV told you? Yeehah Jan 2020 #32
So, you support Trump in his assassination? MineralMan Jan 2020 #34
Sorry but the ones at fault if it was an Iranian missile is still Iran no matter how you slice it. cstanleytech Jan 2020 #4
By that logic sarisataka Jan 2020 #11
I wouldn't disagree with that. Hostilities between Iran and Iraq created a battlefield situation. Girard442 Jan 2020 #15
Why would they do this? NT enough Jan 2020 #2
Human error most likely. nt cstanleytech Jan 2020 #5
I agree, fog of war. Drumpf created the conditions. n/t rzemanfl Jan 2020 #8
The offiicial Iranian stance on accidentally shooting down an airliner is ripcord Jan 2020 #23
Could have been a Stinger n/t MySideOfTown Jan 2020 #31
Somebody screwed up. Archae Jan 2020 #7
This is by far sarisataka Jan 2020 #9
The most likely scenario Berlin Expat Jan 2020 #33
Are there Russian troops (advisors?) in the area? JustABozoOnThisBus Jan 2020 #13
Russian troops would have a missile battery in downtown Tehran? brooklynite Jan 2020 #14
According to Wikipedia, Iran has Russian Buk missiles which are.... KY_EnviroGuy Jan 2020 #30
thought U.S. Intel said yesterday material_highlighter Jan 2020 #16
I think it's interesting that "someone" was pointing their camera at the plane just when mitch96 Jan 2020 #26
According to some reports ga_girl Jan 2020 #27
that's my hunch. material_highlighter Jan 2020 #28
Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»Video Shows Ukrainian Air...»Reply #33