Dr. Birx Predicts 200,000 Deaths "If We Do Things Almost Perfectly"

[Igel]

36. These are published numbers from a couple of weeks ago,

using fairly standard models.

The upper bounds if nothing is done--and when they say nothing, they mean literally nothing, from no hospitalization to no social distancing--are those widely quoted in the media.

It goes like this:
If nothing is done, our best estimate is that 2.2 million could die. (Notice 'estimate'--it's 2.2 million +/- so much, and this is the peak)
Their best estimate is that 2.2 million could die.
2.2 million will die.
At least 2.2 million will die.
Anybody claiming less than 2.2 million because we're not doing what China did is obviously lying.

It's a game of telephone.

Things that could be done are social distancing, hospitalization, school closures, lockdowns. Any of these reduce the numbers. But all together won't zero out the numbers. Those who say the red states have done nothing obviously think they don't have hospitals and all the schools are still open. I'm in a red state. Schools are mostly closed and large urban areas are locked down. Oh--and we have hospitals. Some even have running water.

Their models also say if nothing's done there's very large peak soon. If the maximum is done, there's a flattened, but still substantive peak, in a few months. If an in-between set of choices are implemented, things will quickly quiet down and then all hell will break loose next fall.