U.S. coronavirus death projection lowered but official warns of 'second wave'

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32. IHME seems overly optimistic for countries that actively track death outside hospitals

Hi,

I checked IHME projection closely. As they offered us a glimmer of hope, but I noticed diverging accuracy depending on the country their model is applied to.


Note bene :

After some time to adjust Italy & France seems to have put in place a more systematic counting of covid-19 related death, Spain followed with minor issues with numbers from retirement homes.

The UK seems to have some logistical issue at the moment but the government recently pledge to count all tested covid-19 death, not only those in hospitals.

I am not sure how IHME build its model, but you will notice a divergence between most EU countries & the US or the UK.

This is possibly due to issues with the collect of data or the use of different criteria, it is still unclear.


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