Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

progree

(13,077 posts)
20. "Last month, it said the unemployment rate was 13.3 percent, but a major misclassification" ...
Thu Jul 2, 2020, 09:56 AM
Jul 2020

From the Washington Post -

BLS said the unemployment rate in June declined to 11.1 percent. Last month, it said the unemployment rate was 13.3 percent, but a major misclassification error clouded the report’s accuracy.


The BLS report estimated the May unemployment rate was "about 3 percentage points" higher than the 13.3% reported, due to the misclassification error.

More on this from a month ago, and also the March and April errors
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13560715

Back to today's report - in the Covid-19 section of the OP, it says

If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical June) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 1 percentage point higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). However, this represents the upper bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates the size of the misclassification error.

According to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses.


So, from the above, the official 11.1% is low side, while 12.1% is high side.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Next month that will be back down. But the stock market Squinch Jul 2020 #1
Probably not FBaggins Jul 2020 #8
We'll see whether it is or not. My opinion is that it will drop. Squinch Jul 2020 #14
trump is a traitor rockfordfile Jul 2020 #24
The survey periods progree Jul 2020 #18
Thank you! Squinch Jul 2020 #19
in a pig's eye bucolic_frolic Jul 2020 #2
WaPo just breaking now BumRushDaShow Jul 2020 #3
Good morning. I didn't know if you would be around for a Thursday release. mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #4
I'm around BumRushDaShow Jul 2020 #5
"Last month, it said the unemployment rate was 13.3 percent, but a major misclassification" ... progree Jul 2020 #20
Black and Latino rates are around 15%. mpcamb Jul 2020 #37
Yup, I include black and white in my BLS Data Links (#7 below) progree Jul 2020 #38
Links to earlier reports: mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #6
SOME BLS DATA SERIES NUMBERS LINKS progree Jul 2020 #7
Good morning. Thanks for being up for this. NT mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #9
Seasonally adjusted initial claims were 1,427,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #10
PERSONS CLAIMING UI BENEFITS IN ALL PROGRAMS, W.E. June 13 (UNADJUSTED): 31,491,627 progree Jul 2020 #16
"I don't know why they don't have a Week Ending June 20 for this." mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #17
Additional links: mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #11
Links to charts and graphs from the BLS Twitter account. mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #12
This will give Yertle all he needs to justify not extending the Fed unemployment stopbush Jul 2020 #13
the real unemployment rate is closer to 20%, but the new math used these days leaves out a lot yaesu Jul 2020 #15
Agree! Wuddles440 Jul 2020 #22
The unemployment numbers will shockingly start hitting 15%-18% a month after Biden is in office Bengus81 Jul 2020 #23
Trump is winning so bigly IronLionZion Jul 2020 #21
All in all... Newest Reality Jul 2020 #25
U-6 Unemployment lonely bird Jul 2020 #26
Interesting analysis over at 538! maddogesq Jul 2020 #27
I get it. lonely bird Jul 2020 #28
That's 3.15x Of What It Was When BHO Left ProfessorGAC Jul 2020 #29
I get 2.36x. But point well-taken progree Jul 2020 #30
I Think You're Doing UE6 ProfessorGAC Jul 2020 #31
The official unemployment rate is U-3. I've never seen anything else given in the media progree Jul 2020 #32
From White House Dot Gov ProfessorGAC Jul 2020 #33
That wasn't from any time in 2016 or 2017. I can believe that was September progree Jul 2020 #34
Per progree, "that was September 2019 released in early October 2019." mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #35
Ahh, the flashback to better days - we'd still be there if we had not done all this testing progree Jul 2020 #36
Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»Nonfarm payroll employmen...»Reply #20