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In reply to the discussion: Economy adds 1.4 million jobs in August, and the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent [View all]BumRushDaShow
(169,277 posts)19. Buried in the BLS report linked upthread
here - https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142575568#post1
the previous months' revisions are included in the full report -
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 10,000, from
+4,791,000 to +4,781,000, and the change for July was revised down by 29,000, from +1,763,000
to +1,734,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined was 39,000 less than
previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses
and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of
seasonal factors.)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
+4,791,000 to +4,781,000, and the change for July was revised down by 29,000, from +1,763,000
to +1,734,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined was 39,000 less than
previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses
and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of
seasonal factors.)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Of course the "X Factor" includes this -
Since March, household survey interviewers have been instructed to classify employed persons
absent from work due to temporary, coronavirus-related business closures or cutbacks as
unemployed on temporary layoff. BLS and Census Bureau analyses of the underlying data suggest
there still may be some workers affected by the pandemic who should have been classified as
unemployed on temporary layoff. However, the share of responses that may have been
misclassified was much smaller in July and August than in prior months.
For March through July, BLS published an estimate of what the unemployment rate would have
been had misclassified workers been included. Repeating this same approach, the overall
August unemployment rate would have been 0.7 percentage point higher than reported. However,
this represents the upper bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates
the size of the misclassification error.
absent from work due to temporary, coronavirus-related business closures or cutbacks as
unemployed on temporary layoff. BLS and Census Bureau analyses of the underlying data suggest
there still may be some workers affected by the pandemic who should have been classified as
unemployed on temporary layoff. However, the share of responses that may have been
misclassified was much smaller in July and August than in prior months.
For March through July, BLS published an estimate of what the unemployment rate would have
been had misclassified workers been included. Repeating this same approach, the overall
August unemployment rate would have been 0.7 percentage point higher than reported. However,
this represents the upper bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates
the size of the misclassification error.
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Economy adds 1.4 million jobs in August, and the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent [View all]
BumRushDaShow
Sep 2020
OP
[Refresh] [Refresh] [Refresh] [Refresh] [Refresh] Whew. There it is. NT
mahatmakanejeeves
Sep 2020
#10
A lot of that was government jobs, especially census workers. Also, the jobs added
still_one
Sep 2020
#2
So, we "added" 1.4 million jobs in August but there were 800,000 new unemployment claims....
George II
Sep 2020
#12
Yes. It is extremely unreliable because of the uncertainty with the pandemic and chaos going on
still_one
Sep 2020
#17
Illustrating your point with a data series - total count of nonfarm payroll jobs
progree
Sep 2020
#22
Yup, government jobs: +344,000 in August (238,000 of which were Census workers)
progree
Sep 2020
#27
Not your headline, but I think it's misleading - "adds 1.4 million jobs" probably means....
George II
Sep 2020
#3
yea i'm skeptical how it went from 13% to 8.5% so quickly...hmmm seems there's fudging going on
onetexan
Sep 2020
#9
Of course this doesn't factor in the almost 4 million new unemployment claims in August!
George II
Sep 2020
#13
The big discrepancy between jobs report 13.6 M unemployed, and 29.2 M collecting benefits
progree
Sep 2020
#34
Unemployment Crisis Going in Wrong Direction: Week 25 of U.S. Labor Market Collapse
progree
Sep 2020
#39