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VMA131Marine

(5,151 posts)

4. For those doing the math ...

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 09:08 AM

Oct 2020

An 18% Biden win in the popular vote with 70% turnout would translate to a margin of ~25 million votes. It would be about the same % margin that Reagan beat Mondale by in 1984 (58.8% to 40.6%), but that election only had 53% turnout and the winning popular vote margin was 17 million votes. Mondale, as you will recall, won 13 EVs from his home state of Minnesota and DC. I would guess that one of the reasons for the low turnout was Dems staying home because it was obvious before the election that Mondale was going to lose badly. It’s telling how polarised the country has become that, even if Biden wins the popular vote by 18%, Trump would still probably get well over 100 EVs and win at least 10 states.

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Biden Opens Up Huge Lead Nationally [View all] brooklynite Oct 2020 OP

I HOPE it translates into VOTES!!! lastlib Oct 2020 #1

I second that emotion Inablueway Oct 2020 #2

Third! calimary Oct 2020 #15

This. n/t Boomer Oct 2020 #7

So do all of us Auggie Oct 2020 #14

Eggs Ackley! callous taoboy Oct 2020 #36

14 to 18 points!!! lagomorph777 Oct 2020 #3

For those doing the math ... VMA131Marine Oct 2020 #4

Trump wll definitely get at least 17 states rpannier Oct 2020 #6

I agree! SunnyATT Oct 2020 #34

According to 538, all Biden needs is to win by a margin of 7% or 8% to Vivienne235729 Oct 2020 #61

We may see the bandwagon effect take hold Norbert Oct 2020 #5

THIS Silver Gaia Oct 2020 #8

still dangerous territory kiri Oct 2020 #46

Burning ballot collection boxes? PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 2020 #47

Here: Lock him up. Oct 2020 #52

K&R Scurrilous Oct 2020 #9

Someone correct me if I'm wrong about this, gab13by13 Oct 2020 #10

pretty much, yep beachbumbob Oct 2020 #11

538 now gives Biden a 10.5 point advantage Lasher Oct 2020 #19

Probably if tge election were held today. Lucky Luciano Oct 2020 #30

Or gaining quakerboy Oct 2020 #54

Traditionally, races tighten as Election Day approaches. Lucky Luciano Oct 2020 #55

Traditionally quakerboy Oct 2020 #60

Dems polling well for the Senate too IronLionZion Oct 2020 #12

THIS is what matters, BIGTIME. calimary Oct 2020 #16

Agreed Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #20

Absolutely, without the senate, repugs will block everything for political reasons. KS Toronado Oct 2020 #22

THAT would be a Thing of Beauty! calimary Oct 2020 #51

I'm liking the sausage you're making this morning bucolic_frolic Oct 2020 #13

He is is such a groove Cosmocat Oct 2020 #24

I wonder about the campaign personnel bucolic_frolic Oct 2020 #26

YEP - do you see the LP Blind Big ad? Cosmocat Oct 2020 #49

This is an A/B rated pollster Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 #17

Thank you. That was my first question. scipan Oct 2020 #40

If, God willing, this is the case, then Biden and Harris won't just win. PatrickforO Oct 2020 #18

Yes a mandate for true CHANGE. roamer65 Oct 2020 #43

This message was self-deleted by its author roamer65 Oct 2020 #44

56 to 38 - like the sound of that... UncleNoel Oct 2020 #21

Consequences of the 84 election cited above AZizzy Oct 2020 #23

I'm holding good thoughts for a landslide victory for Joe Biden. NoRoadUntravelled Oct 2020 #25

Vote! Eom. JDC Oct 2020 #27

That's great, but as we saw in 2016 TexasBushwhacker Oct 2020 #28

Statistically, Turin_C3PO Oct 2020 #35

I just hope he wins by a large margin in most of the swing states TexasBushwhacker Oct 2020 #45

The tide raises all ships. NorthOf270 Oct 2020 #62

Frank Luntz: "The more Trump talks the more voters he loses." rough quote Botany Oct 2020 #29

I can't wait to stomp trump's a&&. I'm going to damn well make sure that all of my friends get out SWBTATTReg Oct 2020 #31

I feel like I'm dreaming. BobTheSubgenius Oct 2020 #32

I also look at Vegas odds, gab13by13 Oct 2020 #33

Vote, damn it! Vote! paleotn Oct 2020 #37

I never underestimate the tRump crowd... joewicker_TX Oct 2020 #38

VOTE LIKE YOUR LIFE DEPENDS ON IT because IT DOES. Lock him up. Oct 2020 #53

A 70% turnout would a Blue Wave of titanic size. kairos12 Oct 2020 #39

The planets are lining up for Nov 3. safeinOhio Oct 2020 #41

1984 style landslide? roamer65 Oct 2020 #42

Ah hell, let's go for a 20 point margin. Ligyron Oct 2020 #48

Take nothing for granted. GOTV BlueWavePsych Oct 2020 #50

send a message to foreign adversaries samsingh Oct 2020 #56

The down-ballet needs the extra votes. Earthshine2 Oct 2020 #57

This. nt Tommymac Oct 2020 #59

Superb news, but... MarianJack Oct 2020 #58