CNN Poll: Obama tied with Romney & Paul in November showdowns

[fujiyama]

46. I think Obama understands he has a tough fight ahead to keep his job

He's been getting piled on by the entire GOP field for a while and has not started campaigning yet. The good thing is Obama does have a pretty decent war chest which will be a must, considering all the Super PACs out there.

I think we'll see the numbers fluctuate quite a bit. If Romney starts opening a huge lead and keeps it, then there will be some cause for concern. We all know that Romney isn't particular well liked by just about anyone so I can't see him actually exciting people to be enthusiastic about his campaign. The VP pick could make some difference. For now a tie isn't horrible considering the unemployment rate and the way things have been going for many out there. While there may be some signs of a recovery, it's very rocky and uncertain.

We'll also see state polls start cropping up. I think VA and NC are especially worth noticing, as well as CO, NM, and NV. He will definitely need NM and CO - and one big swing state. NV might be tougher (and I believe there is a big Mormon population out there as well).

Of course, the traditional swing states will be important too (OH, PA, FL). The electoral count will almost certainly be much closer this time. I definitely don't see him carrying IN this time, for example.