Pfizer vaccine efficacy drops in Israel as delta variant spreads

[moriah]

12. This might help.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57431420

The common cold has an R0 value (the average number of people an infected person infects) of 2-3 from what I can see on Google. That BBC article says the flu has a far lower R0 value than the common cold, but constantly mutates even with our shots for it.

While chickenpox isn't in that list, it has an R0 value of 10-12 in non-immune people (and evolved enough with humanity to not cause as much damage as measles or smallpox, the two that seem to have been the oldest but still never evolved to co-exist with humans as chickenpox did by living inside its host for the rest of that host's life and be caught in childhood).

Still, it's also new and doesn't have "check systems" to make sure that each virus copy made is correct -- in a way, it's like it's doing an experiment on humanity with each new person it infects. That virus blew through an entire low-vaccination country that is quite populous, and did it FAST, learning how to better infect us with every person it went through. Evolution at work, for those who don't think evolution can mimic intentional design.

And now we're seeing how it's acting in a very vaccinated country. Apparently it is, like colds, using the fact that some people have partial immunity and aren't getting as sick from an infection as others (we all have various antibodies to colds, including colds caused by coronaviruses, and then some people have a stronger natural immunity to colds in the first place so just incubate them but never get sick) to spread and live -- it's "goal" isn't to kill humans, but to keep on surviving. It clearly is using the vaccinated in this examination of Israels stats as reservoirs in whom it can survive, but it's not making them nearly as sick as they would be without the shot. And it doesn't really have to. In a way, it's an advantage for Delta in that country that most of the population it could infect is not likely to become incapacitated by the virus and some will keep going to work.

What that means for how Delta will hit the unvaccinated insofar as disease-causing capacity, I don't know. That's another thing the virus really doesn't care about if it can transmit well enough.

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Vaccination is the best thing anyone can do (to protect themselves but also enhance the ability to protect others), and cloth masks were never 100% effective either at hopefully preventing your asymtomatic/presymptomatic cough from infecting another person (the main thing a non-N95 style mask did). Masks and social distancing were mitigation strategies, and could still be helpful.

But really, at this point, not getting vaccinated is willingly participating in a "death lottery" -- especially if the virus incubates well enough in vaccinated people to spread to the non-vaccinated without the vaccinated person realizing they're sick instead of dealing with allergies and should STFAH.

Since COVID surveillance will remain high if anyone goes to the doctor, we should distinguish "colds" from "COVID" fairly easily if they're bad enough to drive someone to seek medical treatment. Pharmacies continuing to offer both vaccines and COVID testing, like mine is, will also help those who feel puny enough to stay at home or use telemedicine for their doctor interaction -- script them the good decongestant/expectorant combo and they can get the test while getting their script (and pharmacists know what meds are generally prescribed for the "common cold", so will be keeping those pts at curbside).

It'd honestly want to commission a study on the mild but COVID-specific symptoms, such as loss of smell, and if that is something that is still clear in the vaccinated patients who are not hospitalized but known to be infected with COVID. That might be the best way for us vaccinated people to not be this virus's helpers -- to know how to tell when we should STFAH. Also, employers need to add STFAH benefits to their wage packages if they are wanting to attract more workers. It would help lower transmission rates as kids go back to school and parents go back to work.