Yellen tells Congress that U.S. will run out of debt ceiling flexibility on Oct. 18

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. Yes, reconciliation is an option, but only if Manchin and Sinema support it

So, at this moment, it appears that Manchin is blocking either route to lift the debt ceiling. It seems he would like to “pause” the reconciliation negotiations into 2022 and beyond, but if reconciliation is to be used to lift the debt ceiling, that’s not an option.

Here’s hoping that Manchin’s obstruction on the filibuster, which then forces reconciliation to be used to lift the debt ceiling, will be the catalyst that forces Manchin and Sinema to begin good faith negotiations in crafting a reconciliation bill that will pass the senate before Yellen’s hard deadline of October 18 (it would really need to pass several days before Oct 18, to allow the house to pass and get the bill to Biden’s desk- any significant delay past Oct 1 will likely churn the markets).