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BumRushDaShow

(167,293 posts)
4. It's how they set up their thresholds
Fri Apr 22, 2022, 04:01 AM
Apr 2022

using 3 "indicators", where a change in "2 of 3" criteria will trigger an action - https://www.phila.gov/programs/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/guidance/covid-19-response-levels/

Response levels, criteria, and applicable mandates

The City will use the least restrictive response level that applies, according to the following thresholds.

Response level | Criteria | Mandate

Level 4: Extreme Caution Two or more of the following are true:

  • Average new cases per day are greater than 500.
  • Hospitalizations are greater than 500.
  • Cases have increased by more than 50% in the previous 10 days.


  • You must:

  • Present your vaccine card or exemption for places that serve food or drink.
  • Wear a mask when indoors in public places.


  • Level 3: Caution Two or more of the following are true:

  • Average new cases per day are between 225 and 500.
  • Hospitalizations are between 100 and 500.
  • Cases have increased by more than 50% in the previous 10 days


  • You must:

  • Present your vaccine card or exemption or a negative test within 24 hours for places that serve food or drink (acceptable tests include lab or onsite testing, not home tests). The negative test option is available to patrons only.
  • Wear a mask when indoors in public places
  • .

    Level 2: Mask Precautions Two or more of the following are true:

  • Average new cases per day are less than 225.
  • Hospitalizations are less than 100.
  • Cases have increased by more than 50% in the previous 10 days.


  • You must:

  • Wear a mask when indoors in public places.
  • There is no vaccine or testing requirement for places that serve food or drink.


  • Level 1: All Clear Two or more of the following are true:

  • Average new cases per day are less than 100.
  • Hospitalizations are less than 50.
  • Cases have increased by less than 50% in the previous 10 days.


  • No vaccine or testing requirement for places that serve food or drink.
  • No mask requirement (except in schools, healthcare institutions, congregate settings, and on public transportation; see “other situations” below).


  • Other situations

    Some COVID-19 restrictions have been instituted in certain higher-risk settings like schools and large events. These settings will work differently than the rest of the city in many cases.

  • Schools and early childhood education settings will continue to require 100% masking. For schools, we will continue to watch and evaluate the data. If it continues to move in the right direction, we plan to end mandatory masking in schools on March 9. Then, we will have a one-week mask requirement after spring break to avoid a post-break surge in cases.
  • Healthcare settings (PDF) will continue to require masks under federal guidance.
  • Large outdoor events, like concerts and races, with more than 1,000 people will require and check vaccine status during Level 4 (Extreme Caution), will require and check either vaccine status or have a negative test during Level 3 (Caution), and will have no restrictions during Level 2 (Mask Precautions) or Level 1 (All Clear).
  • College and university food and dining halls are covered by the City’s Institutions of Higher Education mandate (PDF) and are not covered by the City’s COVID-19 response levels.


  • If you have questions about the City’s COVID-19 response levels, please call (215) 685-5488.


    The hope with this is to NIP a rise in the bud before it becomes a surge.

    I remember 2 years ago watching Cuomo's daily pressers and one of the ways that he described that they did there (and NYC actually did it as "micro-tracking and targeting" of neighborhoods by zip), was to implement restrictions in hyper-local areas as soon as something started moving in the wrong direction to bring the case rates down, and then slowly "open the valve" (reduce restrictions) and watch the result, and go from there.

    I had been tracking here since March 13, 2020 when they first started locking down and ended up with a 6-month megathread here - https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142446993). I'm still tracking in my only little file...

    Yesterday's report -




    Philadelphia Public Health
    @PHLPublicHealth
    April 21, 2022 COVID-19 update:

    242 average new cases per day
    280,674 Philadelphians diagnosed with COVID-19
    5,025 Philadelphians have died from COVID-19
    65 hospitalizations

    For more information: http://ow.ly/oD5Q50F9ZpR
    Image
    2:47 PM · Apr 21, 2022


    So in this case, they are using the 2 criteria of "Cases have increased by more than 50% in the previous 10 days." (which is where they are now saying they have "leveled" and no longer increasing at "more than 50% in the previous 10 days" ) but my issue is whether they believe this has happened - "Hospitalizations are less than 50", because 65 hospitalizations is surely greater than the threshold of 50 hospitalizations (or less).

    They are supposed to have a presser this morning to discuss. Could be they lift at some point next week depending on what the hospitalizations do.

    ETA listening to the radio report this morning, the reporter said there was a Board of Health meeting last night with suggestions of slightly revising the criteria because IMHO, the hospitalizations are NOT at the lower level yet to go "all clear", although the commentary from the Health Board meeting was that "the hospitalizations were dropping". So am guessing they may tweak the criteria for "trends" - which can get tricky due to how the data comes in (often in batches).

    Recommendations

    0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

    That was quick and dirty IronLionZion Apr 2022 #1
    New covid case increase Philadelphia County last 14 days: +139%, Pennsylvania: +82% progree Apr 2022 #2
    What the Hell?!?!? BigmanPigman Apr 2022 #3
    It's how they set up their thresholds BumRushDaShow Apr 2022 #4
    Wow, their plan is so extensive. BigmanPigman Apr 2022 #7
    Well I watched their presser today BumRushDaShow Apr 2022 #9
    I figured there was outside pressure to lift it BigmanPigman Apr 2022 #10
    I think like the CDC BumRushDaShow Apr 2022 #11
    Cases In PA RobinA Apr 2022 #5
    What I meant was that the change in 14 days was high. BigmanPigman Apr 2022 #6
    I am so glad I opted to take SS when I turned 62 in 2021 noiretextatique Apr 2022 #8
    Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»Philadelphia to End Indoo...»Reply #4